--- title: "Nice List case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Nice List ($6.30) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 12 items with odds, observed 90.16% over 1,534 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nice-list rendered: 2026-11-11T15:15Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Nice List](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nice-list) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Nice List A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nice-list?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nice-list?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nice-list) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nice-list?window=all) Price · $6.30 · 12.6 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $5.67 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.16% · 1,534 openings, odds method Variance · 8.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 34 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 81.61% ±32.77 292 openings 7 days · 86.49% ±15.50 1,306 openings 30 days · 90.16% ±14.30 1,534 openings since tracking started · 90.16% ±14.30 1,534 openings 48.0% 81.5% 115.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nice-list?window=24h) | 292 | 81.61% ±32.8 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nice-list?window=7d) | 1,306 | 86.49% ±15.5 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nice-list) | 1,534 | 90.16% ±14.3 | +0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nice-list?window=all) | 1,534 | 90.16% ±14.3 | +0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,534 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $126 252 coins | 6.7% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $124 247 coins | 6.5% | 7 | 4.6 | 1.52× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $114 229 coins | 6.0% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.30× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $93.07 186 coins | 8.2% | 1 | 7.7 | 0.13× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $91.81 184 coins | 8.1% | 10 | 7.7 | 1.30× | | [M249 \| Blizzard Marbleized (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-blizzard-marbleized-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $89.99 180 coins | 7.9% | 11 | 7.7 | 1.43× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $83.22 166 coins | 7.3% | 8 | 7.7 | 1.04× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $77.84 156 coins | 6.9% | 8 | 7.7 | 1.04× | | [P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-factory-new) | 12.6% | $16.06 32.11 coins | 35.7% | 182 | 193.3 | 0.94× | | [P2000 \| Grassland (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-field-tested) | 24.0% | $1.09 2.18 coins | 4.6% | 362 | 368.2 | 0.98× | | [P2000 \| Ivory (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-factory-new) | 30.0% | $0.38 0.75 coins | 2.0% | 472 | 460.2 | 1.03× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 30.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 464 | 460.2 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=nice-list) [P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $6.30 12.6 coins $16.06 32.11 coins 2.55x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [P2000 | Grassland (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-field-tested) Hidden $6.30 12.6 coins $1.09 2.18 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $6.30 12.6 coins $16.06 32.11 coins 2.55x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $6.30 12.6 coins $16.06 32.11 coins 2.55x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [P2000 | Ivory (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-factory-new) Hidden $6.30 12.6 coins $0.38 0.75 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $6.30 12.6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $6.30 12.6 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [P2000 | Grassland (Field-Tested) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-field-tested) Hidden $6.30 12.6 coins $1.09 2.18 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $6.30 12.6 coins $16.06 32.11 coins 2.55x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC [P2000 | Ivory (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-factory-new) Hidden $6.30 12.6 coins $0.38 0.75 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.30 | 89.98% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.6% covert knife 0.3% rare 0.5% Industrial Grade 24.5% red 0.5% mil spec 12.6% Rare 30.0% consumer 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt