--- title: "Night Raid case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Night Raid ($5.73) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 11 items with odds, observed 104.48% over 237 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/night-raid rendered: 2026-11-11T13:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Night Raid](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/night-raid) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Night Raid A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/night-raid?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/night-raid?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/night-raid) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/night-raid?window=all) Price · $5.73 · 11.46 coins Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $5.16 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 104.48% · 237 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 106.27% ±21.93 233 openings 30 days · 104.48% ±21.74 237 openings since tracking started · 104.48% ±21.74 237 openings 82.0% 105.5% 129.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/night-raid?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/night-raid?window=7d) | 233 | 106.27% ±21.9 | +1.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/night-raid) | 237 | 104.48% ±21.7 | +1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/night-raid?window=all) | 237 | 104.48% ±21.7 | +1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 237 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $57.14 114 coins | 11.1% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.27× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $52.31 105 coins | 10.1% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.27× | | [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $40.42 80.83 coins | 7.8% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.69× | | [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $23.04 46.07 coins | 13.4% | 11 | 7.1 | 1.55× | | [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $17.64 35.28 coins | 17.1% | 13 | 11.9 | 1.10× | | [P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $11.19 22.37 coins | 13.0% | 14 | 14.2 | 0.98× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $9.27 18.53 coins | 9.0% | 8 | 11.9 | 0.68× | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 12.0% | $3.61 7.22 coins | 8.4% | 30 | 28.4 | 1.05× | | [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-factory-new) | 12.0% | $2.70 5.39 coins | 6.3% | 26 | 28.4 | 0.91× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 12.0% | $1.59 3.18 coins | 3.7% | 23 | 28.4 | 0.81× | | [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 42.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 102 | 99.5 | 1.02× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=night-raid) [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) Hidden $5.73 11.46 coins $3.61 7.22 coins 0.63x 2026-11-10 11:18 UTC [MAG-7 | Praetorian (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-factory-new) Hidden $5.73 11.46 coins $2.70 5.39 coins 0.47x 2026-11-10 11:18 UTC [FAMAS | Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) Hidden $5.73 11.46 coins $40.42 80.83 coins 7.05x 2026-11-10 11:18 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $5.73 11.46 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 11:18 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) Hidden $5.73 11.46 coins $1.59 3.18 coins 0.28x 2026-11-10 11:18 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) [Lingyz](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Lingyz) $5.73 11.46 coins $52.31 105 coins 9.13x 2026-11-10 11:18 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $5.73 11.46 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 11:17 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $5.73 11.46 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 11:17 UTC [Five-SeveN | Jungle (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $5.73 11.46 coins $17.64 35.28 coins 3.08x 2026-11-10 11:17 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $5.73 11.46 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 11:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.73 | 89.97% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.0% classified 7.0% mil spec 3.0% Consumer Grade 5.0% red 5.0% restricted 24.0% Legendary 12.0% #4b69ff 42.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt