--- title: "Nightfall case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Nightfall ($22.05) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 129.70% over 92 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nightfall rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Nightfall](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nightfall) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Nightfall A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nightfall?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nightfall?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nightfall) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nightfall?window=all) Price · $22.05 · 44.09 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $19.84 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 129.70% · 92 openings, odds method Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 24.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 60 openings · below min 30 days · 92 openings · below min since tracking started · 92 openings · below min 89.5% 129.3% 169.0% **Small sample.** 92 openings and 22.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nightfall?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nightfall?window=7d) | 60 | 131.16% ±37.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nightfall) | 92 | 129.70% ±30.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nightfall?window=all) | 92 | 129.70% ±30.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 92 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $191 382 coins | 9.6% | 4 | 0.9 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $166 332 coins | 8.4% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $137 274 coins | 13.8% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.09× | | [USP-S \| Caiman (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-factory-new) | 20.0% | $40.22 80.43 coins | 40.5% | 17 | 18.4 | 0.92× | | [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $21.81 43.62 coins | 22.0% | 23 | 18.4 | 1.25× | | [Desert Eagle \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $5.81 11.61 coins | 2.3% | 3 | 7.4 | 0.41× | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.79 5.57 coins | 1.1% | 6 | 7.4 | 0.82× | | [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2.60 5.19 coins | 1.0% | 9 | 7.4 | 1.22× | | [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.03 2.05 coins | 0.4% | 6 | 7.4 | 0.82× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.70 1.41 coins | 0.3% | 5 | 7.4 | 0.68× | | [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.57 1.14 coins | 0.2% | 7 | 7.4 | 0.95× | | [MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.55 1.09 coins | 0.2% | 8 | 7.4 | 1.09× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=nightfall) [AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $22.05 44.09 coins $21.81 43.62 coins 0.99x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [USP-S | Caiman (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-factory-new) Hidden $22.05 44.09 coins $40.22 80.43 coins 1.82x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-field-tested) Hidden $22.05 44.09 coins $1.03 2.05 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) [DemonDeeeeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DemonDeeeeek) $22.05 44.09 coins $21.81 43.62 coins 0.99x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [USP-S | Caiman (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-factory-new) Hidden $22.05 44.09 coins $40.22 80.43 coins 1.82x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) Hidden $22.05 44.09 coins $0.55 1.09 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [AK-47 | Uncharted (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-factory-new) Hidden $22.05 44.09 coins $0.57 1.14 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC [USP-S | Caiman (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-factory-new) Hidden $22.05 44.09 coins $40.22 80.43 coins 1.82x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-factory-new) Hidden $22.05 44.09 coins $0.70 1.41 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC [MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-lapis-gator-factory-new) Hidden $22.05 44.09 coins $0.55 1.09 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 00:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $22.05 | 89.99% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed sunny 1.0% covert 21.0% covert knife 2.0% classified 20.0% light blue 8.0% mil spec 32.0% consumer 8.0% Rare 8.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt