--- title: "Noir case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Noir ($5.63) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 16 items with odds, observed 89.66% over 1,301 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/noir rendered: 2026-11-11T15:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Noir](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/noir) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Noir A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/noir?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/noir?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/noir) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/noir?window=all) Price · $5.63 · 11.25 coins Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $5.06 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.66% · 1,301 openings, odds method Variance · 6.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 14 openings · below min 7 days · 95.10% ±14.87 1,083 openings 30 days · 89.66% ±13.57 1,301 openings since tracking started · 89.66% ±13.57 1,301 openings -0.5% 75.5% 151.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/noir?window=24h) | 14 | 20.08% ±130.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/noir?window=7d) | 1,083 | 95.10% ±14.9 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/noir) | 1,301 | 89.66% ±13.6 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/noir?window=all) | 1,301 | 89.66% ±13.6 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,301 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $159 318 coins | 7.9% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $84.56 169 coins | 7.5% | 8 | 5.9 | 1.37× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $74.03 148 coins | 8.0% | 8 | 7.2 | 1.12× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $62.08 124 coins | 9.2% | 11 | 9.8 | 1.13× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $39.38 78.75 coins | 11.7% | 25 | 19.5 | 1.28× | | [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $25.96 51.91 coins | 9.0% | 22 | 22.8 | 0.97× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $22.39 44.77 coins | 8.8% | 30 | 26.0 | 1.15× | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $21.43 42.85 coins | 10.6% | 36 | 32.5 | 1.11× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $13.86 27.72 coins | 8.2% | 28 | 39.0 | 0.72× | | [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $9.53 19.05 coins | 7.5% | 50 | 52.0 | 0.96× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $6.50 12.99 coins | 5.1% | 51 | 52.0 | 0.98× | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.44 6.88 coins | 3.4% | 62 | 65.0 | 0.95× | | [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) | 18.5% | $0.55 1.1 coins | 2.0% | 246 | 240.7 | 1.02× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) | 18.5% | $0.14 0.28 coins | 0.5% | 253 | 240.7 | 1.05× | | [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-field-tested) | 18.5% | $0.13 0.25 coins | 0.5% | 248 | 240.7 | 1.03× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 18.8% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 223 | 243.9 | 0.91× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=noir) [P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $5.63 11.25 coins $0.14 0.28 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 21:21 UTC [MAC-10 | Rangeen (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-field-tested) Hidden $5.63 11.25 coins $0.13 0.25 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 21:21 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) Hidden $5.63 11.25 coins $0.55 1.1 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 21:21 UTC [Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) Hidden $5.63 11.25 coins $6.50 12.99 coins 1.15x 2026-11-10 21:21 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) Hidden $5.63 11.25 coins $0.55 1.1 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 21:21 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) Hidden $5.63 11.25 coins $0.55 1.1 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 21:21 UTC [MAC-10 | Rangeen (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-field-tested) Hidden $5.63 11.25 coins $0.13 0.25 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 21:21 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-factory-new) [chuubs](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/chuubs) $5.63 11.25 coins $0.14 0.28 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 21:21 UTC [MAC-10 | Rangeen (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-field-tested) Hidden $5.63 11.25 coins $0.13 0.25 coins 0.02x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $5.63 11.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.63 | 89.95% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 16.8% Ancient 9.0% violet 18.5% consumer 18.5% Rare 18.5% #4b69ff 18.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt