--- title: "NoKarambitPlz case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "NoKarambitPlz ($5,252.86) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 9 items with odds, observed 65.67% over 32 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nokarambitplz rendered: 2026-11-11T20:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [NoKarambitPlz](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nokarambitplz) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · NoKarambitPlz A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nokarambitplz?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nokarambitplz?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nokarambitplz) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nokarambitplz?window=all) Price · $5,252.86 · 10,506 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $4,727.57 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 65.67% · 32 openings, odds method Variance · 4.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 32 openings · below min 30 days · 32 openings · below min since tracking started · 32 openings · below min -0.5% 67.5% 135.5% **Small sample.** 32 openings and 2.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nokarambitplz?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nokarambitplz?window=7d) | 32 | 65.67% ±69.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nokarambitplz) | 32 | 65.67% ±69.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nokarambitplz?window=all) | 32 | 65.67% ±69.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $112K 223,312 coins | 11.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 50 | $36.5K 72,902 coins | 15.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $36.3K 72,651 coins | 15.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $11.7K 23,410 coins | 9.9% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $10.9K 21,888 coins | 9.3% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $9,355 18,710 coins | 7.9% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× | | [Sticker \| 3DMAX (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 14 | $3,314 6,628 coins | 4.9% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.34× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $3,195 6,389 coins | 4.8% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.77× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 69.4% | $1,405 2,810 coins | 20.6% | 22 | 22.2 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $5,253 10,506 coins $36.5K 72,902 coins 6.94x 2026-11-05 12:02 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $5,253 10,506 coins $36.5K 72,902 coins 6.94x 2026-11-05 12:02 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $5,253 10,506 coins $10.9K 21,888 coins 2.08x 2026-11-05 12:02 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $5,253 10,506 coins $10.9K 21,888 coins 2.08x 2026-11-05 12:02 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) Hidden $5,253 10,506 coins $9,355 18,710 coins 1.78x 2026-11-07 16:26 UTC [Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-holo-katowice-2014) [Zen](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Zen) $5,253 10,506 coins $3,314 6,628 coins 0.63x 2026-11-07 16:27 UTC [Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $5,253 10,506 coins $3,314 6,628 coins 0.63x 2026-11-07 03:49 UTC [Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-holo-katowice-2014) [Zen](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Zen) $5,253 10,506 coins $3,314 6,628 coins 0.63x 2026-11-05 12:02 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) Hidden $5,253 10,506 coins $3,195 6,389 coins 0.61x 2026-11-07 16:27 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) Hidden $5,253 10,506 coins $3,195 6,389 coins 0.61x 2026-11-07 16:26 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=nokarambitplz) [★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) Hidden $5,253 10,506 coins $3,195 6,389 coins 0.61x 2026-11-07 16:26 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $5,253 10,506 coins $1,405 2,810 coins 0.27x 2026-11-07 16:26 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $5,253 10,506 coins $1,405 2,810 coins 0.27x 2026-11-07 16:26 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $5,253 10,506 coins $1,405 2,810 coins 0.27x 2026-11-07 16:26 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $5,253 10,506 coins $1,405 2,810 coins 0.27x 2026-11-07 16:26 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) Hidden $5,253 10,506 coins $3,195 6,389 coins 0.61x 2026-11-07 16:26 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $5,253 10,506 coins $1,405 2,810 coins 0.27x 2026-11-07 16:26 UTC [Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-holo-katowice-2014) [Zen](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Zen) $5,253 10,506 coins $3,314 6,628 coins 0.63x 2026-11-07 16:26 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $5,253 10,506 coins $1,405 2,810 coins 0.27x 2026-11-07 16:26 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $5,253 10,506 coins $1,405 2,810 coins 0.27x 2026-11-07 16:26 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5,253 | 90.00% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 73.9% legendary 4.0% extraordinary 11.1% contraband 4.0% remarkable 7.0% best hit $36.5K (6.94x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt