--- title: "Nuke case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Nuke ($1,540.43) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 565.64% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nuke rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Nuke](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nuke) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Nuke A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nuke?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nuke?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nuke) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nuke?window=all) Price · $1,540.43 · 3,081 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,386.39 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 565.64% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 5.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min 89.5% 584.8% 1080.0% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nuke?window=24h) | 4 | 852.73% ±226.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nuke?window=7d) | 12 | 565.64% ±130.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nuke) | 12 | 565.64% ±130.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nuke?window=all) | 12 | 565.64% ±130.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $41.2K 82,490 coins | 14.9% | 2 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33 | $7,898 15,795 coins | 17.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Sticker \| bondik (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bondik-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 29 | $7,065 14,130 coins | 17.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 29 | $6,321 12,641 coins | 16.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $4,425 8,850 coins | 12.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2,012 4,025 coins | 5.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 10.0% | $750 1,501 coins | 5.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 15.0% | $552 1,105 coins | 6.0% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-field-tested) | 20.0% | $276 551 coins | 4.0% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 36.5% | $11.62 23.23 coins | 0.3% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1,540 3,081 coins $41.2K 82,490 coins 26.77x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1,540 3,081 coins $41.2K 82,490 coins 26.77x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $1,540 3,081 coins $7,898 15,795 coins 5.13x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [Sanityy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sanityy) $1,540 3,081 coins $6,321 12,641 coins 4.10x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $1,540 3,081 coins $4,425 8,850 coins 2.87x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC [AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $1,540 3,081 coins $2,012 4,025 coins 1.31x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $1,540 3,081 coins $552 1,105 coins 0.36x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $1,540 3,081 coins $552 1,105 coins 0.36x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=nuke) [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $1,540 3,081 coins $41.2K 82,490 coins 26.77x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $1,540 3,081 coins $552 1,105 coins 0.36x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $1,540 3,081 coins $4,425 8,850 coins 2.87x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [Sanityy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sanityy) $1,540 3,081 coins $6,321 12,641 coins 4.10x 2026-11-10 16:34 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $1,540 3,081 coins $552 1,105 coins 0.36x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $1,540 3,081 coins $7,898 15,795 coins 5.13x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) [JohnDoe77](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/JohnDoe77) $1,540 3,081 coins $11.62 23.23 coins 0.01x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-field-tested) Hidden $1,540 3,081 coins $276 551 coins 0.18x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,540 3,081 coins $11.62 23.23 coins 0.01x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC [AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $1,540 3,081 coins $2,012 4,025 coins 1.31x 2026-11-09 23:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,540 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 26.0% extraordinary 23.5% knifes 4.0% gold 10.0% industrial 36.5% best hit $41.2K (26.77x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt