--- title: "Nutcracker SMG case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Nutcracker SMG ($5.66) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 95.52% over 1,920 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nutcracker-smg rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Nutcracker SMG](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nutcracker-smg) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Nutcracker SMG A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nutcracker-smg?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nutcracker-smg?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nutcracker-smg) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nutcracker-smg?window=all) Price · $5.66 · 11.31 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $5.09 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.52% · 1,920 openings, odds method Variance · 8.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 92 openings · below min 7 days · 88.78% ±13.92 1,623 openings 30 days · 95.52% ±12.80 1,920 openings since tracking started · 95.52% ±12.80 1,920 openings 28.5% 87.5% 146.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nutcracker-smg?window=24h) | 92 | 87.40% ±58.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nutcracker-smg?window=7d) | 1,623 | 88.78% ±13.9 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nutcracker-smg) | 1,920 | 95.52% ±12.8 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/nutcracker-smg?window=all) | 1,920 | 95.52% ±12.8 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,920 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MP7 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $367 733 coins | 7.2% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.56× | | [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $65.76 132 coins | 9.7% | 12 | 14.4 | 0.83× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $64.92 130 coins | 12.8% | 21 | 19.2 | 1.09× | | [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $52.80 106 coins | 13.8% | 40 | 25.6 | 1.56× | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $27.81 55.62 coins | 14.6% | 40 | 51.2 | 0.78× | | [P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $16.06 32.11 coins | 10.3% | 61 | 62.4 | 0.98× | | [P90 \| Sunset Lily (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $15.13 30.25 coins | 9.8% | 49 | 63.4 | 0.77× | | [P90 \| Tiger Pit (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-tiger-pit-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $7.11 14.22 coins | 7.8% | 101 | 107.5 | 0.94× | | [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $5.04 10.08 coins | 5.9% | 127 | 115.2 | 1.10× | | [MP7 \| Tall Grass (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-tall-grass-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $2.17 4.33 coins | 3.4% | 154 | 153.6 | 1.00× | | [UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.81 3.61 coins | 2.8% | 166 | 153.6 | 1.08× | | [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.64 1.27 coins | 1.2% | 184 | 192.0 | 0.96× | | [MP9 \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.23 0.47 coins | 0.5% | 213 | 192.0 | 1.11× | | [PP-Bizon \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.06 0.12 coins | 0.1% | 200 | 192.0 | 1.04× | | [UMP-45 \| Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 173 | 192.0 | 0.90× | | [SG 553 \| Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 376 | 384.0 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [MP7 | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-factory-new) [iMadyyyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/iMadyyyy) $5.66 11.31 coins $367 733 coins 64.83x 2026-11-07 18:19 UTC [MP7 | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-factory-new) Hidden $5.66 11.31 coins $367 733 coins 64.83x 2026-11-04 12:43 UTC [MP7 | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-factory-new) [Janaczzz](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Janaczzz) $5.66 11.31 coins $367 733 coins 64.83x 2026-11-04 12:40 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=nutcracker-smg) [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $5.66 11.31 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:19 UTC [MP9 | Capillary (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-capillary-factory-new) Hidden $5.66 11.31 coins $0.23 0.47 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 09:19 UTC [SG 553 | Aloha (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-field-tested) Hidden $5.66 11.31 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:19 UTC [PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) [OttoW](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/OttoW) $5.66 11.31 coins $5.04 10.08 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 09:19 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $5.66 11.31 coins $0.64 1.27 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 09:19 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $5.66 11.31 coins $0.64 1.27 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 09:19 UTC [UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-field-tested) Hidden $5.66 11.31 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:19 UTC [UMP-45 | Scaffold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-scaffold-factory-new) [OttoW](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/OttoW) $5.66 11.31 coins $1.81 3.61 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 09:19 UTC [UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $5.66 11.31 coins $0.64 1.27 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 09:16 UTC [PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) [OttoW](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/OttoW) $5.66 11.31 coins $5.04 10.08 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 09:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.66 | 89.99% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 13.4% SMGs 0.8% classified 3.7% restricted 25.3% industrial 11.3% Rare 5.6% #87c7ff 10.0% consumer 10.0% blue 20.0% best hit $367 (64.83x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt