--- title: "Omen case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Omen ($3.26) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 14 items with odds, observed 88.48% over 7,515 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/omen rendered: 2026-11-11T18:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Omen](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/omen) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Omen A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/omen?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/omen?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/omen) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/omen?window=all) Price · $3.26 · 6.52 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $2.93 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.48% · 7,515 openings, odds method Variance · 85.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 190 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 727 openings · below min 7 days · 87.48% ±23.97 5,743 openings 30 days · 88.48% ±20.95 7,515 openings since tracking started · 88.48% ±20.95 7,515 openings 63.0% 140.0% 217.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/omen?window=24h) | 727 | 148.95% ±67.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/omen?window=7d) | 5,743 | 87.48% ±24.0 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/omen) | 7,515 | 88.48% ±21.0 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/omen?window=all) | 7,515 | 88.48% ±21.0 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,515 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,265 2,529 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $832 1,663 coins | 2.8% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $755 1,509 coins | 2.6% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $556 1,113 coins | 3.8% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [★ Bayonet \| Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $540 1,081 coins | 3.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $504 1,008 coins | 3.4% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 2,500 | $348 696 coins | 4.7% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.33× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $338 677 coins | 11.5% | 4 | 7.5 | 0.53× | | [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $301 602 coins | 10.3% | 8 | 7.5 | 1.06× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $235 470 coins | 16.0% | 11 | 15.0 | 0.73× | | [★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $223 446 coins | 15.2% | 14 | 15.0 | 0.93× | | [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $201 402 coins | 13.7% | 19 | 15.0 | 1.26× | | [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) | 49.1% | $0.50 1 coins | 8.4% | 3,701 | 3688.0 | 1.00× | | [Sawed-Off \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-field-tested) | 50.0% | $0.10 0.2 coins | 1.7% | 3,747 | 3757.5 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $3.26 6.52 coins $832 1,663 coins 255.1x 2026-11-09 11:26 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) [leny444](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/leny444) $3.26 6.52 coins $832 1,663 coins 255.1x 2026-11-07 12:51 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $3.26 6.52 coins $755 1,509 coins 231.5x 2026-11-11 02:45 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $3.26 6.52 coins $755 1,509 coins 231.5x 2026-11-02 23:02 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) [Tomex](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Tomex) $3.26 6.52 coins $556 1,113 coins 170.7x 2026-11-10 19:21 UTC [★ Bayonet | Night (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-factory-new) Hidden $3.26 6.52 coins $540 1,081 coins 165.7x 2026-11-06 11:57 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $3.26 6.52 coins $504 1,008 coins 154.6x 2026-11-08 13:54 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $3.26 6.52 coins $348 696 coins 106.7x 2026-11-04 10:22 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $3.26 6.52 coins $348 696 coins 106.7x 2026-11-03 18:56 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $3.26 6.52 coins $348 696 coins 106.7x 2026-11-03 16:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=omen) [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $3.26 6.52 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC [Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $3.26 6.52 coins $0.10 0.2 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC [Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $3.26 6.52 coins $0.10 0.2 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC [Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $3.26 6.52 coins $0.10 0.2 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $3.26 6.52 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $3.26 6.52 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $3.26 6.52 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) [DavidRice](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DavidRice) $3.26 6.52 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:25 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $3.26 6.52 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $3.26 6.52 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 18:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.26 | 90.00% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.7% covert knife 0.0% Covert 0.0% other 0.2% blue 49.1% milspec 50.0% best hit $832 (255.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt