--- title: "Opal case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Opal ($1.40) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.81% from 16 items with odds, observed 90.52% over 4,126 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/opal rendered: 2026-11-11T14:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Opal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/opal) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Opal A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/opal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/opal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/opal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/opal?window=all) Price · $1.40 · 2.8 coins Advertised RTP · 89.81% · EV $1.26 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.52% · 4,126 openings, odds method Variance · 9.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 32.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 52.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94.43% ±42.22 214 openings 7 days · 90.03% ±10.72 3,320 openings 30 days · 90.52% ±9.62 4,126 openings since tracking started · 90.52% ±9.62 4,126 openings 51.5% 94.5% 137.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/opal?window=24h) | 214 | 94.43% ±42.2 | +0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/opal?window=7d) | 3,320 | 90.03% ±10.7 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/opal) | 4,126 | 90.52% ±9.62 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/opal?window=all) | 4,126 | 90.52% ±9.62 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,126 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,271 2,542 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100,000 | $506 1,012 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 1,333 | $18.01 36.01 coins | 1.1% | 6 | 3.1 | 1.94× | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 800 | $7.07 14.13 coins | 0.7% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.97× | | [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $5.04 10.08 coins | 1.0% | 7 | 10.3 | 0.68× | | [MAG-7 \| Seabird (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-seabird-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $3.20 6.39 coins | 1.4% | 29 | 22.7 | 1.28× | | [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $2.75 5.49 coins | 4.4% | 82 | 82.5 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-faded-zebra-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $2.33 4.65 coins | 7.4% | 176 | 165.0 | 1.07× | | [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2.04 4.07 coins | 8.1% | 231 | 206.3 | 1.12× | | [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.91 3.81 coins | 12.1% | 347 | 330.1 | 1.05× | | [P250 \| Mint Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mint-kimono-field-tested) | 12.5% | $1.70 3.4 coins | 16.9% | 535 | 515.8 | 1.04× | | [P90 \| Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-storm-field-tested) | 15.0% | $1.51 3.02 coins | 18.0% | 607 | 618.9 | 0.98× | | [MAC-10 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-field-tested) | 15.0% | $1.27 2.53 coins | 15.1% | 578 | 618.9 | 0.93× | | [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.91 1.81 coins | 7.2% | 403 | 412.6 | 0.98× | | [Tec-9 \| Jambiya (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-jambiya-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.40 0.79 coins | 3.1% | 416 | 412.6 | 1.01× | | [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 17.5% | $0.15 0.3 coins | 2.1% | 704 | 722.0 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=opal) [MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $1.40 2.8 coins $1.27 2.53 coins 0.90x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) Hidden $1.40 2.8 coins $0.91 1.81 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $1.40 2.8 coins $1.27 2.53 coins 0.90x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [Tec-9 | Jambiya (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-jambiya-field-tested) Hidden $1.40 2.8 coins $0.40 0.79 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [P90 | Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-storm-field-tested) Hidden $1.40 2.8 coins $1.51 3.02 coins 1.08x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [Tec-9 | Jambiya (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-jambiya-field-tested) [420Skabais](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/420Skabais) $1.40 2.8 coins $0.40 0.79 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [Tec-9 | Jambiya (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-jambiya-field-tested) Hidden $1.40 2.8 coins $0.40 0.79 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [P90 | Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-storm-field-tested) Hidden $1.40 2.8 coins $1.51 3.02 coins 1.08x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $1.40 2.8 coins $1.27 2.53 coins 0.90x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [MAC-10 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-urban-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $1.40 2.8 coins $1.27 2.53 coins 0.90x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.40 | 89.81% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed 1 10.0% covert 0.1% industrial 8.1% classified 2.3% consumer 15.6% mil spec 4.0% restricted 5.0% Consumer Grade 12.5% Common 15.0% Restricted 10.0% Rare 17.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.81 on average: an expected loss of $10.19 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt