--- title: "Oracle case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Oracle ($409.98) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 107.39% over 80 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/oracle rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Oracle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/oracle) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Oracle A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/oracle?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/oracle?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/oracle) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/oracle?window=all) Price · $409.98 · 820 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $368.98 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 107.39% · 80 openings, odds method Variance · 4.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 32 openings · below min 7 days · 80 openings · below min 30 days · 80 openings · below min since tracking started · 80 openings · below min 48.0% 125.5% 203.0% **Small sample.** 80 openings and 5.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/oracle?window=24h) | 32 | 125.62% ±76.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/oracle?window=7d) | 80 | 107.39% ±48.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/oracle) | 80 | 107.39% ±48.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/oracle?window=all) | 80 | 107.39% ±48.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 80 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $9,483 18,967 coins | 12.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 200 | $6,648 13,296 coins | 9.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $2,469 4,937 coins | 6.7% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $2,109 4,219 coins | 5.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,788 3,576 coins | 9.7% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 50 | $1,571 3,142 coins | 8.5% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.50× | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-katowice-2014) | 1 in 33 | $1,316 2,632 coins | 10.7% | 3 | 2.4 | 1.25× | | [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 90.0% | $151 302 coins | 36.8% | 70 | 72.0 | 0.97× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $410 820 coins $9,483 18,967 coins 23.13x 2026-11-10 19:05 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $410 820 coins $2,469 4,937 coins 6.02x 2026-11-10 19:05 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $410 820 coins $2,469 4,937 coins 6.02x 2026-11-04 18:49 UTC [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $410 820 coins $1,571 3,142 coins 3.83x 2026-11-04 18:49 UTC [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $410 820 coins $1,571 3,142 coins 3.83x 2026-11-04 18:49 UTC [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $410 820 coins $1,571 3,142 coins 3.83x 2026-11-04 18:49 UTC [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $410 820 coins $1,571 3,142 coins 3.83x 2026-11-04 18:44 UTC [Sticker | Team LDLC.com | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-katowice-2014) Hidden $410 820 coins $1,316 2,632 coins 3.21x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [Sticker | Team LDLC.com | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-katowice-2014) Hidden $410 820 coins $1,316 2,632 coins 3.21x 2026-11-05 12:00 UTC [Sticker | Team LDLC.com | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-katowice-2014) Hidden $410 820 coins $1,316 2,632 coins 3.21x 2026-11-04 18:44 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=oracle) [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $410 820 coins $9,483 18,967 coins 23.13x 2026-11-10 19:05 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) Hidden $410 820 coins $151 302 coins 0.37x 2026-11-10 19:05 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) Hidden $410 820 coins $151 302 coins 0.37x 2026-11-10 19:05 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) Hidden $410 820 coins $151 302 coins 0.37x 2026-11-10 19:05 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $410 820 coins $2,469 4,937 coins 6.02x 2026-11-10 19:05 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) Hidden $410 820 coins $151 302 coins 0.37x 2026-11-10 19:05 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) Hidden $410 820 coins $151 302 coins 0.37x 2026-11-10 19:05 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) [BigNIg2000](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BigNIg2000) $410 820 coins $151 302 coins 0.37x 2026-11-10 19:05 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) Hidden $410 820 coins $151 302 coins 0.37x 2026-11-10 19:04 UTC [Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) Hidden $410 820 coins $151 302 coins 0.37x 2026-11-10 19:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $410 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #EB4B4B 0.5% covert 3.5% legendary 3.0% high 3.0% classified 90.0% best hit $9,483 (23.13x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt