--- title: "Orbital case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Orbital ($26.55) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 14 items with odds, observed 98.24% over 71 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/orbital rendered: 2026-11-11T13:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Orbital](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/orbital) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Orbital A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/orbital?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/orbital?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/orbital) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/orbital?window=all) Price · $26.55 · 53.09 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $23.89 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 98.24% · 71 openings, odds method Variance · 4.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 55 openings · below min 30 days · 71 openings · below min since tracking started · 71 openings · below min 32.5% 91.0% 149.5% **Small sample.** 71 openings and 4.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/orbital?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/orbital?window=7d) | 55 | 90.67% ±57.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/orbital) | 71 | 98.24% ±50.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/orbital?window=all) | 71 | 98.24% ±50.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 71 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Charm \| Diner Dog charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diner-dog) | 1 in 100 | $270 540 coins | 11.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $259 519 coins | 10.9% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $254 508 coins | 10.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $251 503 coins | 10.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $129 258 coins | 13.5% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.25× | | [Souvenir P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p2000-granite-marbleized-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $122 244 coins | 12.8% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.13× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $113 226 coins | 11.8% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.69× | | [AWP \| Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $49.51 99.01 coins | 6.7% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× | | [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $22.69 45.37 coins | 3.8% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.70× | | [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $13.47 26.94 coins | 2.3% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× | | [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $6.73 13.46 coins | 1.7% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.94× | | [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $3.52 7.03 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 4.3 | 0.23× | | [R8 Revolver \| Canal Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-canal-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $2.71 5.41 coins | 0.7% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.94× | | [Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) | 59.3% | $1.02 2.04 coins | 2.5% | 45 | 42.1 | 1.07× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=orbital) [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) Hidden $26.55 53.09 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.04x 2026-11-09 18:03 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $26.55 53.09 coins $113 226 coins 4.25x 2026-11-09 18:03 UTC [Charm | Diner Dog charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diner-dog) Hidden $26.55 53.09 coins $270 540 coins 10.17x 2026-11-09 18:03 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) [Greg](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Greg) $26.55 53.09 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.04x 2026-11-09 18:03 UTC [R8 Revolver | Canal Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-canal-spray-factory-new) Hidden $26.55 53.09 coins $2.71 5.41 coins 0.10x 2026-11-09 18:03 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) Hidden $26.55 53.09 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.04x 2026-11-09 18:03 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) Hidden $26.55 53.09 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.04x 2026-11-09 18:03 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) Hidden $26.55 53.09 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.04x 2026-11-09 18:03 UTC [AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) Hidden $26.55 53.09 coins $13.47 26.94 coins 0.51x 2026-11-09 11:23 UTC [Galil AR | Tuxedo (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-factory-new) Hidden $26.55 53.09 coins $1.02 2.04 coins 0.04x 2026-11-09 11:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.55 | 89.99% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #d32ce6 1.0% covert 2.0% covert knife 6.0% other 5.8% mil spec 4.0% restricted 10.0% violet 6.0% consumer 6.0% Rare 59.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt