--- title: "Overpass case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Overpass ($36.03) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 104.81% over 331 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/overpass rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Overpass](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/overpass) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Overpass A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/overpass?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/overpass?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/overpass) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/overpass?window=all) Price · $36.03 · 72.06 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $32.42 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 104.81% · 331 openings, odds method Variance · 12.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 56 openings · below min 7 days · 106.62% ±38.25 317 openings 30 days · 104.81% ±37.43 331 openings since tracking started · 104.81% ±37.43 331 openings 24.5% 116.3% 208.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/overpass?window=24h) | 56 | 116.16% ±91.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/overpass?window=7d) | 317 | 106.62% ±38.3 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/overpass) | 331 | 104.81% ±37.4 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/overpass?window=all) | 331 | 104.81% ±37.4 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 331 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,505 3,010 coins | 11.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $956 1,912 coins | 7.4% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $800 1,600 coins | 6.2% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $750 1,501 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $390 780 coins | 12.0% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · gold · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $316 631 coins | 9.7% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.51× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $256 512 coins | 15.8% | 9 | 6.6 | 1.36× | | [Charm \| Titeenium AWP charm · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-titeenium-awp) | 1 in 50 | $226 451 coins | 13.9% | 7 | 6.6 | 1.06× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $175 350 coins | 16.2% | 4 | 9.9 | 0.40× | | [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 90.0% | $0.50 1 coins | 1.4% | 298 | 297.9 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) Hidden $36.03 72.06 coins $1,505 3,010 coins 41.77x 2026-11-05 17:32 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $36.03 72.06 coins $956 1,912 coins 26.54x 2026-11-11 02:23 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $36.03 72.06 coins $956 1,912 coins 26.54x 2026-11-05 17:29 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $36.03 72.06 coins $800 1,600 coins 22.21x 2026-11-10 12:30 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $36.03 72.06 coins $800 1,600 coins 22.21x 2026-11-06 05:35 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=overpass) [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $36.03 72.06 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $36.03 72.06 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $36.03 72.06 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $36.03 72.06 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $36.03 72.06 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $36.03 72.06 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $36.03 72.06 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $36.03 72.06 coins $175 350 coins 4.86x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $36.03 72.06 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 07:50 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $36.03 72.06 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 07:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $36.03 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.3% extraordinary 0.3% covert 3.3% gold 1.3% Legendary 2.0% Covert 3.0% #4b69ff 90.0% best hit $1,505 (41.77x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt