--- title: "Override case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Override ($7.11) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 8 items with odds, observed 97.89% over 1,136 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/override rendered: 2026-11-11T17:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Override](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/override) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Override A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/override?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/override?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/override) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/override?window=all) Price · $7.11 · 14.21 coins Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $6.39 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.89% · 1,136 openings, odds method Variance · 11.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 27 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86 openings · below min 7 days · 91.09% ±22.57 872 openings 30 days · 97.89% ±19.78 1,136 openings since tracking started · 97.89% ±19.78 1,136 openings 4.5% 77.0% 149.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/override?window=24h) | 86 | 77.02% ±71.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/override?window=7d) | 872 | 91.09% ±22.6 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/override) | 1,136 | 97.89% ±19.8 | +0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/override?window=all) | 1,136 | 97.89% ±19.8 | +0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,136 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $252 504 coins | 19.7% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.23× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $113 227 coins | 22.2% | 16 | 14.2 | 1.13× | | [Souvenir Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-sage-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $65.10 130 coins | 20.4% | 23 | 22.7 | 1.01× | | [USP-S \| Serum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $42.01 84.01 coins | 19.7% | 39 | 34.1 | 1.14× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $12.90 25.79 coins | 9.1% | 41 | 51.1 | 0.80× | | [FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $4.27 8.53 coins | 5.3% | 85 | 90.9 | 0.94× | | [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $2.54 5.08 coins | 3.6% | 116 | 102.2 | 1.13× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 71.8% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 809 | 815.1 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=override) [★ Ursus Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $7.11 14.21 coins $113 227 coins 15.95x 2026-11-11 14:29 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $7.11 14.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:29 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $7.11 14.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:29 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $7.11 14.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:29 UTC [FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-factory-new) Hidden $7.11 14.21 coins $4.27 8.53 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 14:29 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $7.11 14.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:29 UTC [USP-S | Serum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-factory-new) Hidden $7.11 14.21 coins $42.01 84.01 coins 5.91x 2026-11-11 14:29 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) [Crickzz1](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Crickzz1) $7.11 14.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:29 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $7.11 14.21 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC [UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) Hidden $7.11 14.21 coins $2.54 5.08 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.11 | 89.95% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.8% consumer 73.8% classified 3.0% Rare 4.5% restricted 8.0% #4b69ff 9.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt