--- title: "Oxide case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Oxide ($0.77) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.96% from 8 items with odds, observed 95.07% over 6,186 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/oxide rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Oxide](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/oxide) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Oxide A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/oxide?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/oxide?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/oxide) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/oxide?window=all) Price · $0.77 · 1.53 coins Advertised RTP · 89.96% · EV $0.69 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.07% · 6,186 openings, odds method Variance · 64.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 24 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 57.97% ±69.18 517 openings 7 days · 92.87% ±21.69 5,260 openings 30 days · 95.07% ±20.00 6,186 openings since tracking started · 95.07% ±20.00 6,186 openings -0.5% 63.8% 128.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/oxide?window=24h) | 517 | 57.97% ±69.2 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/oxide?window=7d) | 5,260 | 92.87% ±21.7 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/oxide) | 6,186 | 95.07% ±20.0 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/oxide?window=all) | 6,186 | 95.07% ±20.0 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,188 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $247 493 coins | 17.9% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.62× | | [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $90.84 182 coins | 6.6% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× | | [PP-Bizon \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $16.13 32.26 coins | 23.4% | 53 | 61.9 | 0.86× | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $5.51 11.01 coins | 24.0% | 190 | 185.6 | 1.02× | | [UMP-45 \| Delusion (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-factory-new) | 15.0% | $0.92 1.83 coins | 19.9% | 916 | 928.2 | 0.99× | | [MP9 \| Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dart-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.51 1.01 coins | 7.3% | 620 | 618.8 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Featherweight (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-field-tested) | 35.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.5% | 2,096 | 2165.8 | 0.97× | | [MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) | 35.9% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.3% | 2,306 | 2221.5 | 1.04× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-factory-new) Hidden $0.77 1.53 coins $247 493 coins 322.2x 2026-11-09 18:49 UTC [MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-factory-new) Hidden $0.77 1.53 coins $247 493 coins 322.2x 2026-11-08 10:04 UTC [MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-factory-new) Hidden $0.77 1.53 coins $247 493 coins 322.2x 2026-11-07 23:11 UTC [MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-factory-new) Hidden $0.77 1.53 coins $247 493 coins 322.2x 2026-11-06 01:56 UTC [MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-factory-new) Hidden $0.77 1.53 coins $247 493 coins 322.2x 2026-11-04 00:00 UTC [MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) Hidden $0.77 1.53 coins $90.84 182 coins 118.7x 2026-11-08 02:00 UTC [MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) Hidden $0.77 1.53 coins $90.84 182 coins 118.7x 2026-11-05 19:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=oxide) [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $0.77 1.53 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [UMP-45 | Delusion (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-delusion-factory-new) Hidden $0.77 1.53 coins $0.92 1.83 coins 1.20x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $0.77 1.53 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [MP9 | Featherweight (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-field-tested) Hidden $0.77 1.53 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [MP9 | Featherweight (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-field-tested) Hidden $0.77 1.53 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [MP9 | Featherweight (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-field-tested) Hidden $0.77 1.53 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [MP9 | Featherweight (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-field-tested) Hidden $0.77 1.53 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $0.77 1.53 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [MP9 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) Hidden $0.77 1.53 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC [MP9 | Featherweight (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-featherweight-field-tested) Hidden $0.77 1.53 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.77 | 89.96% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.1% mil spec 11.1% covert 3.0% Mil Spec 15.0% milspec 70.9% best hit $247 (322.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.96 on average: an expected loss of $10.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt