--- title: "P2 case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "P2 ($53.60) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 11 items with odds, observed 81.50% over 458 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/p2 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [P2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/p2) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · P2 A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/p2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/p2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/p2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/p2?window=all) Price · $53.60 · 107 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $48.23 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.50% · 458 openings, odds method Variance · 10.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 83.49% ±32.47 392 openings 30 days · 81.50% ±30.04 458 openings since tracking started · 81.50% ±30.04 458 openings -0.5% 151.3% 303.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/p2?window=24h) | 8 | 75.09% ±227.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/p2?window=7d) | 392 | 83.49% ±32.5 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/p2) | 458 | 81.50% ±30.0 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/p2?window=all) | 458 | 81.50% ±30.0 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 458 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1,182 2,363 coins | 49.0% | 8 | 9.2 | 0.87× | | [Souvenir P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $376 752 coins | 15.6% | 9 | 9.2 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $252 504 coins | 10.4% | 10 | 9.2 | 1.09× | | [P250 \| Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-modern-hunter-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $152 304 coins | 6.3% | 5 | 9.2 | 0.55× | | [P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $105 209 coins | 4.3% | 11 | 9.2 | 1.20× | | [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $99.37 199 coins | 4.1% | 8 | 9.2 | 0.87× | | [Souvenir P250 \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $84.37 169 coins | 3.5% | 6 | 9.2 | 0.66× | | [P2000 \| Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $69.94 140 coins | 2.9% | 10 | 9.2 | 1.09× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Splash (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-splash-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $56.89 114 coins | 2.4% | 5 | 9.2 | 0.55× | | [P250 \| Digital Architect (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $34.93 69.86 coins | 1.4% | 13 | 9.2 | 1.42× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 80.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 373 | 366.4 | 1.02× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $53.60 107 coins $1,182 2,363 coins 22.05x 2026-11-10 12:22 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $53.60 107 coins $1,182 2,363 coins 22.05x 2026-11-10 12:09 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $53.60 107 coins $1,182 2,363 coins 22.05x 2026-11-09 00:01 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $53.60 107 coins $1,182 2,363 coins 22.05x 2026-11-06 20:28 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $53.60 107 coins $1,182 2,363 coins 22.05x 2026-11-06 13:39 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $53.60 107 coins $1,182 2,363 coins 22.05x 2026-11-06 13:33 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $53.60 107 coins $1,182 2,363 coins 22.05x 2026-11-06 13:16 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $53.60 107 coins $1,182 2,363 coins 22.05x 2026-11-04 16:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=p2) [StatTrak™ P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ocean-foam-factory-new) Hidden $53.60 107 coins $252 504 coins 4.70x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $53.60 107 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [P2000 | Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-factory-new) Hidden $53.60 107 coins $69.94 140 coins 1.30x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $53.60 107 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $53.60 107 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $53.60 107 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $53.60 107 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $53.60 107 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $53.60 107 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:35 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $53.60 107 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $53.60 | 89.99% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 6.0% Restricted 2.0% classified 4.0% milspec 2.0% mil spec 4.0% consumer 2.0% #4b69ff 80.0% best hit $1,182 (22.05x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt