--- title: "P250 Nuclear case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "P250 Nuclear ($2.14) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 4 items with odds, observed 84.31% over 1,255 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/p250-nuclear rendered: 2026-11-11T18:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [P250 Nuclear](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/p250-nuclear) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · P250 Nuclear A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/p250-nuclear?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/p250-nuclear?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/p250-nuclear) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/p250-nuclear?window=all) Price · $2.14 · 4.27 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1.92 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.31% · 1,255 openings, odds method Variance · 6.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 80.50% ±48.39 107 openings 7 days · 83.51% ±16.58 912 openings 30 days · 84.31% ±14.13 1,255 openings since tracking started · 84.31% ±14.13 1,255 openings 31.5% 80.5% 129.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/p250-nuclear?window=24h) | 107 | 80.50% ±48.4 | −0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/p250-nuclear?window=7d) | 912 | 83.51% ±16.6 | −0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/p250-nuclear) | 1,255 | 84.31% ±14.1 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/p250-nuclear?window=all) | 1,255 | 84.31% ±14.1 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,255 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $376 752 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [P250 \| Black & Tan (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $15.96 31.92 coins | 58.1% | 84 | 87.9 | 0.96× | | [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 40.0% | $1.91 3.82 coins | 39.8% | 479 | 502.0 | 0.95× | | [P250 \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) | 53.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 692 | 665.0 | 1.04× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=p250-nuclear) [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.14 4.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:10 UTC [P250 | Black & Tan (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-factory-new) Hidden $2.14 4.27 coins $15.96 31.92 coins 7.48x 2026-11-11 18:10 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.14 4.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:10 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.14 4.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:10 UTC [P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $2.14 4.27 coins $1.91 3.82 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 18:10 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.14 4.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:10 UTC [P250 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $2.14 4.27 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:10 UTC [P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $2.14 4.27 coins $1.91 3.82 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 18:10 UTC [P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $2.14 4.27 coins $1.91 3.82 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC [P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $2.14 4.27 coins $1.91 3.82 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.14 | 90.00% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Restricted 0.0% milspec 7.0% classified 40.0% consumer 53.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt