---
title: "PAID case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "PAID ($745.66) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 6 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/paid
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [PAID](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/paid)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · PAID

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/paid?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/paid?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/paid) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/paid?window=all)

Price · $745.66 · 1,491 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $671.09 from 6 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 33.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 50.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/paid?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/paid?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/paid) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/paid?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) | 16.6% | $1,788 3,576 coins | 44.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 16.6% | $1,258 2,517 coins | 31.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 16.6% | $914 1,828 coins | 22.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 16.6% | $69.38 139 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Green Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-factory-new) | 16.6% | $10.01 20.02 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 17.0% | $2.64 5.27 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=paid)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $746 | 90.00% | 6 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 16.6% covert 49.8% industrial 16.6% classified 17.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt