---
title: "Palais case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Palais ($24.16) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 9 items with odds, observed 76.93% over 590 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palais
rendered: 2026-11-12T00:15Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Palais](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palais)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Palais

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palais?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palais?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palais) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palais?window=all)

Price · $24.16 · 48.31 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $21.74 from 9 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 76.93% · 590 openings, odds method

Variance · 39.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 84.36% ±52.91 537 openings

30 days · 76.93% ±50.48 590 openings

since tracking started · 76.93% ±50.48 590 openings

-0.5% 305.3% 611.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palais?window=24h) | 6 | 109.52% ±500.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palais?window=7d) | 537 | 84.36% ±52.9 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palais) | 590 | 76.93% ±50.5 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palais?window=all) | 590 | 76.93% ±50.5 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 590 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $1,935 3,870 coins | 44.5% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.68× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $700 1,401 coins | 16.1% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.02× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Factory New) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $430 860 coins | 9.9% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.02× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 200 | $397 794 coins | 9.1% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.36× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $150 300 coins | 6.9% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $110 220 coins | 5.1% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $85.21 170 coins | 3.9% | 9 | 5.9 | 1.53× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-factory-new) | 10.0% | $7.60 15.19 coins | 3.5% | 58 | 59.0 | 0.98× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Harvester (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-harvester-factory-new) | 85.0% | $0.25 0.5 coins | 1.0% | 505 | 501.5 | 1.01× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $24.16 48.31 coins $1,935 3,870 coins 80.10x 2026-11-10 01:57 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $24.16 48.31 coins $1,935 3,870 coins 80.10x 2026-11-06 13:25 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [iMadyyyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/iMadyyyy) $24.16 48.31 coins $700 1,401 coins 29.00x 2026-11-10 00:52 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $24.16 48.31 coins $700 1,401 coins 29.00x 2026-11-06 15:22 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [jjurch](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/jjurch) $24.16 48.31 coins $700 1,401 coins 29.00x 2026-11-06 13:25 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=palais)

[★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $24.16 48.31 coins $150 300 coins 6.22x 2026-11-11 17:31 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Harvester (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-harvester-factory-new) Hidden $24.16 48.31 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:31 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Harvester (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-harvester-factory-new) Hidden $24.16 48.31 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:31 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-factory-new) Hidden $24.16 48.31 coins $7.60 15.19 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 17:31 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Harvester (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-harvester-factory-new) Hidden $24.16 48.31 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:31 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Harvester (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-harvester-factory-new) Hidden $24.16 48.31 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:31 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Harvester (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-harvester-factory-new) Hidden $24.16 48.31 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) Hidden $24.16 48.31 coins $110 220 coins 4.55x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $24.16 48.31 coins $85.21 170 coins 3.53x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Harvester (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-harvester-factory-new) [DemonDeeeeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DemonDeeeeek) $24.16 48.31 coins $0.25 0.5 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 08:33 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $24.16 | 89.99% | 9 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.0% Extraordinary 0.5% other 0.5% covert knife 2.0% #eb4b4b 10.0% #4b69ff 85.0% best hit $1,935 (80.10x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt