--- title: "Palm Fever case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Palm Fever ($16.58) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 12 items with odds, observed 95.39% over 61 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palm-fever rendered: 2026-11-11T20:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Palm Fever](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palm-fever) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Palm Fever A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palm-fever?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palm-fever?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palm-fever) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palm-fever?window=all) Price · $16.58 · 33.15 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $14.91 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.39% · 61 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 61 openings · below min 30 days · 61 openings · below min since tracking started · 61 openings · below min 68.0% 95.5% 123.0% **Small sample.** 61 openings and 11.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palm-fever?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palm-fever?window=7d) | 61 | 95.39% ±26.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palm-fever) | 61 | 95.39% ±26.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palm-fever?window=all) | 61 | 95.39% ±26.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 61 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-head-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $153 306 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $105 209 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Tec-9 \| Terrace (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $79.54 159 coins | 9.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $58.26 117 coins | 7.8% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $53.22 106 coins | 17.8% | 9 | 3.1 | 2.95× | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $31.27 62.54 coins | 18.9% | 2 | 5.5 | 0.36× | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $20.66 41.32 coins | 12.5% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× | | [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) | 10.0% | $14.33 28.65 coins | 9.6% | 8 | 6.1 | 1.31× | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $8.91 17.81 coins | 6.6% | 12 | 6.7 | 1.79× | | [XM1014 \| Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-field-tested) | 12.9% | $8.54 17.08 coins | 7.4% | 7 | 7.9 | 0.89× | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 17.0% | $4.53 9.06 coins | 5.2% | 10 | 10.4 | 0.96× | | [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 22.0% | $1.54 3.07 coins | 2.3% | 9 | 13.4 | 0.67× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=palm-fever) [Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) Hidden $16.58 33.15 coins $1.54 3.07 coins 0.09x 2026-11-09 15:27 UTC [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-field-tested) Hidden $16.58 33.15 coins $53.22 106 coins 3.21x 2026-11-09 15:27 UTC [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-field-tested) Hidden $16.58 33.15 coins $53.22 106 coins 3.21x 2026-11-09 15:27 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) Hidden $16.58 33.15 coins $14.33 28.65 coins 0.86x 2026-11-09 15:27 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) Hidden $16.58 33.15 coins $14.33 28.65 coins 0.86x 2026-11-09 15:27 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.58 33.15 coins $8.91 17.81 coins 0.54x 2026-11-09 15:27 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) Hidden $16.58 33.15 coins $14.33 28.65 coins 0.86x 2026-11-09 15:27 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) [Vinnie2524](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Vinnie2524) $16.58 33.15 coins $14.33 28.65 coins 0.86x 2026-11-09 15:27 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.58 33.15 coins $8.91 17.81 coins 0.54x 2026-11-09 12:56 UTC [Dual Berettas | Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) Hidden $16.58 33.15 coins $14.33 28.65 coins 0.86x 2026-11-09 12:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.58 | 89.98% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 37.1% mil spec 14.9% classified 24.0% extraordinary 5.0% #d32ee6 9.0% restricted 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt