---
title: "Palms case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Palms ($6.82) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 72.65% over 252 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palms
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Palms](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palms)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Palms

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palms?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palms?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palms) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palms?window=all)

Price · $6.82 · 13.63 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $6.13 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 72.65% · 252 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 68.36% ±25.47 198 openings

30 days · 72.65% ±22.58 252 openings

since tracking started · 72.65% ±22.58 252 openings

-0.5% 89.3% 179.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palms?window=24h) | 6 | 31.85% ±146.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palms?window=7d) | 198 | 68.36% ±25.5 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palms) | 252 | 72.65% ±22.6 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/palms?window=all) | 252 | 72.65% ±22.6 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 252 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $81.41 163 coins | 13.3% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| CaliCamo (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-calicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $50.61 101 coins | 12.4% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× |
| [P2000 \| Grassland Leaves (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-leaves-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $40.54 81.07 coins | 13.2% | 5 | 5.0 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $26.68 53.36 coins | 8.7% | 1 | 5.0 | 0.20× |
| [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $25.41 50.82 coins | 8.3% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× |
| [USP-S \| Business Class (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $22.37 44.74 coins | 7.3% | 5 | 5.0 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.07 24.13 coins | 9.8% | 11 | 12.6 | 0.87× |
| [MAC-10 \| Commuter (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-commuter-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $10.58 21.16 coins | 8.6% | 17 | 12.6 | 1.35× |
| [P90 \| Tiger Pit (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-tiger-pit-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $7.11 14.22 coins | 5.8% | 16 | 12.6 | 1.27× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $6.04 12.08 coins | 4.9% | 7 | 12.6 | 0.56× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $3.28 6.56 coins | 3.2% | 15 | 15.1 | 0.99× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Green Plaid (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-green-plaid-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $2.02 4.03 coins | 2.0% | 22 | 15.1 | 1.46× |
| [UMP-45 \| Corporal (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-corporal-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.68 1.36 coins | 1.3% | 23 | 30.2 | 0.76× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Vendetta (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-vendetta-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.37 0.74 coins | 0.7% | 33 | 30.2 | 1.09× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-factory-new) | 12.0% | $0.21 0.42 coins | 0.4% | 32 | 30.2 | 1.06× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 21.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 58 | 54.2 | 1.07× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=palms)

[FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $6.82 13.63 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Vendetta (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-vendetta-field-tested) Hidden $6.82 13.63 coins $0.37 0.74 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Vendetta (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-vendetta-field-tested) Hidden $6.82 13.63 coins $0.37 0.74 coins 0.05x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC

[SG 553 | Cyberforce (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-factory-new) Hidden $6.82 13.63 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC

[FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $6.82 13.63 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC

[M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) Hidden $6.82 13.63 coins $12.07 24.13 coins 1.77x 2026-11-10 17:30 UTC

[FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $6.82 13.63 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 11:18 UTC

[MAC-10 | Commuter (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-commuter-factory-new) Hidden $6.82 13.63 coins $10.58 21.16 coins 1.55x 2026-11-10 11:18 UTC

[MAC-10 | Commuter (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-commuter-factory-new) Hidden $6.82 13.63 coins $10.58 21.16 coins 1.55x 2026-11-10 11:18 UTC

[SG 553 | Cyberforce (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-factory-new) Hidden $6.82 13.63 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.03x 2026-11-10 11:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.82 | 89.99% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 1.0% other 1.5% industrial 7.0% restricted 4.0% mil spec 2.0% covert 5.0% Rare 17.0% classified 5.0% Mythical 6.0% consumer 6.0% Mil Spec 12.0% #4b69ff 33.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt