--- title: "Party Box case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Party Box ($685.13) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 7 items with odds, observed 64.11% over 20 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/party-box rendered: 2026-11-11T17:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Party Box](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/party-box) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Party Box A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/party-box?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/party-box?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/party-box) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/party-box?window=all) Price · $685.13 · 1,370 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $616.61 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 64.11% · 20 openings, odds method Variance · 4.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 20 openings · below min 30 days · 20 openings · below min since tracking started · 20 openings · below min -0.5% 110.8% 222.0% **Small sample.** 20 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/party-box?window=24h) | 8 | 67.91% ±153.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/party-box?window=7d) | 20 | 64.11% ±96.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/party-box) | 20 | 64.11% ±96.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/party-box?window=all) | 20 | 64.11% ±96.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $9,483 18,967 coins | 15.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $8,979 17,957 coins | 14.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $3,374 6,748 coins | 16.4% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 33 | $3,326 6,652 coins | 16.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $1,805 3,610 coins | 17.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $1,191 2,383 coins | 13.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 79.0% | $49.74 99.48 coins | 6.4% | 17 | 15.8 | 1.08× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) Hidden $685 1,370 coins $3,374 6,748 coins 4.92x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) Hidden $685 1,370 coins $3,374 6,748 coins 4.92x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $685 1,370 coins $1,191 2,383 coins 1.74x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=party-box) [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) Hidden $685 1,370 coins $49.74 99.48 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) Hidden $685 1,370 coins $49.74 99.48 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) Hidden $685 1,370 coins $3,374 6,748 coins 4.92x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) Hidden $685 1,370 coins $49.74 99.48 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) Hidden $685 1,370 coins $49.74 99.48 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) Hidden $685 1,370 coins $49.74 99.48 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) Hidden $685 1,370 coins $49.74 99.48 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) [Vinnie2524](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Vinnie2524) $685 1,370 coins $49.74 99.48 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:46 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) Hidden $685 1,370 coins $49.74 99.48 coins 0.07x 2026-11-10 16:31 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) Hidden $685 1,370 coins $49.74 99.48 coins 0.07x 2026-11-10 16:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $685 | 90.00% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #EB4B4B 1.0% legendary 4.0% covert 10.0% gold 6.0% classified 79.0% best hit $3,374 (4.92x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt