--- title: "Party Fever case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Party Fever ($2.40) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.93% from 8 items with odds, observed 90.55% over 872 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/party-fever rendered: 2026-11-11T20:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Party Fever](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/party-fever) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Party Fever A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/party-fever?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/party-fever?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/party-fever) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/party-fever?window=all) Price · $2.40 · 4.79 coins Advertised RTP · 87.93% · EV $2.11 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.55% · 872 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 30.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 40.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 74 openings · below min 7 days · 90.98% ±6.49 600 openings 30 days · 90.55% ±5.38 872 openings since tracking started · 90.55% ±5.38 872 openings 69.5% 88.5% 107.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/party-fever?window=24h) | 74 | 88.55% ±18.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/party-fever?window=7d) | 600 | 90.98% ±6.49 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/party-fever) | 872 | 90.55% ±5.38 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/party-fever?window=all) | 872 | 90.55% ±5.38 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 872 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $37.64 75.28 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Negev \| Power Loader (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-factory-new) | 29.9% | $3.66 7.31 coins | 51.9% | 264 | 260.7 | 1.01× | | [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) | 30.0% | $3.04 6.08 coins | 43.3% | 274 | 261.6 | 1.05× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.55 1.09 coins | 1.3% | 45 | 43.6 | 1.03× | | [P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.15 0.31 coins | 0.7% | 96 | 87.2 | 1.10× | | [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.13 0.25 coins | 0.6% | 71 | 87.2 | 0.81× | | [PP-Bizon \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.07 0.15 coins | 0.4% | 90 | 87.2 | 1.03× | | [MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 31 | 43.6 | 0.71× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=party-fever) [P250 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.40 4.79 coins $0.15 0.31 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) Hidden $2.40 4.79 coins $0.55 1.09 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [Negev | Power Loader (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-factory-new) Hidden $2.40 4.79 coins $3.66 7.31 coins 1.53x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [Negev | Power Loader (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-factory-new) [tempoix](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/tempoix) $2.40 4.79 coins $3.66 7.31 coins 1.53x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [Negev | Power Loader (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-factory-new) Hidden $2.40 4.79 coins $3.66 7.31 coins 1.53x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [Negev | Power Loader (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-factory-new) Hidden $2.40 4.79 coins $3.66 7.31 coins 1.53x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [P250 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-x-ray-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.40 4.79 coins $0.15 0.31 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) Hidden $2.40 4.79 coins $3.04 6.08 coins 1.27x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $2.40 4.79 coins $0.07 0.15 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC [PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) Hidden $2.40 4.79 coins $3.04 6.08 coins 1.27x 2026-11-11 18:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.40 | 87.93% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% #8847ff 29.9% industrial 50.0% restricted 5.0% Restricted 10.0% #4b69ff 5.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.93 on average: an expected loss of $12.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt