--- title: "Payday case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Payday ($515.18) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 42.14% over 24 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/payday rendered: 2026-11-11T13:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Payday](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/payday) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Payday A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/payday?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/payday?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/payday) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/payday?window=all) Price · $515.18 · 1,030 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $463.66 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 42.14% · 24 openings, odds method Variance · 5.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 24 openings · below min 30 days · 24 openings · below min since tracking started · 24 openings · below min -0.5% 67.5% 135.5% **Small sample.** 24 openings and 4.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/payday?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/payday?window=7d) | 24 | 42.14% ±92.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/payday) | 24 | 42.14% ±92.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/payday?window=all) | 24 | 42.14% ±92.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $9,925 19,850 coins | 17.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $4,806 9,611 coins | 25.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 17.0% | $1,266 2,533 coins | 46.4% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.74× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-well-worn) | 15.9% | $75.06 150 coins | 2.6% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.05× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) | 15.9% | $74.57 149 coins | 2.6% | 6 | 3.8 | 1.57× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 15.9% | $67.97 136 coins | 2.3% | 7 | 3.8 | 1.83× | | [AWP \| Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) | 15.9% | $49.51 99.01 coins | 1.7% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.78× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 15.9% | $39.19 78.38 coins | 1.3% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.26× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 2.46x 2026-11-07 23:24 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 2.46x 2026-11-07 23:23 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 2.46x 2026-11-07 23:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=payday) [Souvenir AWP | Pit Viper (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-well-worn) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $75.06 150 coins 0.15x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $49.51 99.01 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Pit Viper (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-well-worn) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $75.06 150 coins 0.15x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $67.97 136 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Pit Viper (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pit-viper-well-worn) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $75.06 150 coins 0.15x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [AWP | Doodle Lore (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-doodle-lore-field-tested) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $49.51 99.01 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $74.57 149 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-well-worn) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $515 1,030 coins $74.57 149 coins 0.14x 2026-11-10 12:41 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 2.46x 2026-11-07 23:24 UTC [AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $515 1,030 coins $67.97 136 coins 0.13x 2026-11-07 23:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $515 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 49.7% extraordinary 2.5% Restricted 15.9% Classified 15.9% other 15.9% best hit $1,266 (2.46x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt