---
title: "Peasant Present case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Peasant Present ($0.53) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.29% from 16 items with odds, observed 73.53% over 5,916 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/peasant-present
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Peasant Present](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/peasant-present)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Peasant Present

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/peasant-present?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/peasant-present?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/peasant-present) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/peasant-present?window=all)

Price · $0.53 · 1.05 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.29% · EV $0.47 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 73.53% · 5,916 openings, odds method

Variance · 95.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 64.66% ±95.34 405 openings

7 days · 76.59% ±28.24 4,616 openings

30 days · 73.53% ±24.95 5,916 openings

since tracking started · 73.53% ±24.95 5,916 openings

-0.5% 80.0% 160.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/peasant-present?window=24h) | 405 | 64.66% ±95.3 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/peasant-present?window=7d) | 4,616 | 76.59% ±28.2 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/peasant-present) | 5,916 | 73.53% ±24.9 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/peasant-present?window=all) | 5,916 | 73.53% ±24.9 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,918 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) StatTrak · knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $329 658 coins | 7.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $178 355 coins | 7.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $169 338 coins | 7.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $101 202 coins | 7.6% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.45× |
| [Nova \| Forest Leaves (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-forest-leaves-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.55 3.09 coins | 16.5% | 316 | 295.9 | 1.07× |
| [XM1014 \| Scumbria (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-scumbria-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.62 1.24 coins | 10.6% | 460 | 473.4 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.53 1.06 coins | 9.0% | 442 | 473.4 | 0.93× |
| [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 1 in 13 | $0.50 1 coins | 8.5% | 502 | 473.4 | 1.06× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.29 0.58 coins | 5.6% | 532 | 532.6 | 1.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.25 0.5 coins | 4.8% | 500 | 532.6 | 0.94× |
| [UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.23 0.46 coins | 4.4% | 511 | 532.6 | 0.96× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.21 0.42 coins | 4.0% | 571 | 532.6 | 1.07× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.18 0.36 coins | 3.5% | 571 | 532.6 | 1.07× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.16 0.32 coins | 3.1% | 526 | 532.6 | 0.99× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Fragments (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.03 0.06 coins | 0.6% | 528 | 532.6 | 0.99× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.1% | 456 | 468.4 | 0.97× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $0.53 1.05 coins $101 202 coins 192.7x 2026-11-08 22:29 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-urban-masked-factory-new) Hidden $0.53 1.05 coins $101 202 coins 192.7x 2026-11-06 08:09 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-urban-masked-factory-new) [patriarch1337](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/patriarch1337) $0.53 1.05 coins $101 202 coins 192.7x 2026-11-04 18:16 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=peasant-present)

[R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) Hidden $0.53 1.05 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[Nova | Forest Leaves (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-forest-leaves-factory-new) Hidden $0.53 1.05 coins $1.55 3.09 coins 2.94x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-field-tested) Hidden $0.53 1.05 coins $0.03 0.06 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) Hidden $0.53 1.05 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-field-tested) Hidden $0.53 1.05 coins $0.16 0.32 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $0.53 1.05 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $0.53 1.05 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $0.53 1.05 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $0.53 1.05 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-field-tested) Hidden $0.53 1.05 coins $0.03 0.06 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.53 | 89.29% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 0.0% Classified 0.0% Legendary 0.0% covert 0.0% Consumer Grade 5.0% Rare 17.0% #8847ff 8.0% #4b69ff 15.9% restricted 9.0% violet 9.0% Mythical 18.0% milspec 9.0% blue 9.0% best hit $101 (192.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.29 on average: an expected loss of $10.71 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt