--- title: "Pepe case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Pepe ($22.47) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 10 items with odds, observed 97.44% over 64 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pepe rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Pepe](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pepe) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Pepe A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pepe?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pepe?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pepe) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pepe?window=all) Price · $22.47 · 44.93 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $20.22 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.44% · 64 openings, odds method Variance · 5.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 48 openings · below min 30 days · 64 openings · below min since tracking started · 64 openings · below min 3.5% 80.3% 157.0% **Small sample.** 64 openings and 4.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pepe?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pepe?window=7d) | 48 | 71.90% ±67.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pepe) | 64 | 97.44% ±58.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pepe?window=all) | 64 | 97.44% ±58.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 64 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Charm \| Lil' Sandy charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sandy) | 1 in 200 | $530 1,060 coins | 13.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $187 373 coins | 18.5% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $137 274 coins | 13.6% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.56× | | [Souvenir P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $127 254 coins | 12.6% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $83.53 167 coins | 14.5% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.34× | | [Souvenir M249 \| Gator Mesh (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-gator-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $77.52 155 coins | 13.4% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $29.95 59.89 coins | 7.4% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× | | [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $12.01 24.01 coins | 3.6% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.52× | | [XM1014 \| Jungle (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $11.49 22.98 coins | 3.4% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.30× | | [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 69.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 47 | 44.5 | 1.06× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Charm | Lil' Sandy charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sandy) Hidden $22.47 44.93 coins $530 1,060 coins 23.59x 2026-11-04 01:01 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=pepe) [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $22.47 44.93 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:46 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $22.47 44.93 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:46 UTC [XM1014 | Jungle (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $22.47 44.93 coins $11.49 22.98 coins 0.51x 2026-11-10 12:46 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) [axel02legmail](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/axel02legmail) $22.47 44.93 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:46 UTC [AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $22.47 44.93 coins $12.01 24.01 coins 0.53x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [XM1014 | Jungle (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $22.47 44.93 coins $11.49 22.98 coins 0.51x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $22.47 44.93 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) [DemonDeeeeek](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/DemonDeeeeek) $22.47 44.93 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $22.47 44.93 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $22.47 44.93 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 08:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $22.47 | 89.99% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed uncommon 0.5% covert knife 2.0% Restricted 4.0% extraordinary 3.5% Industrial Grade 3.5% classified 5.0% mil spec 6.0% consumer 6.0% #4b69ff 69.5% best hit $530 (23.59x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt