--- title: "Phantom Core case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Phantom Core ($25.43) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 83.38% over 314 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phantom-core rendered: 2026-11-11T18:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Phantom Core](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phantom-core) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Phantom Core A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phantom-core?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phantom-core?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phantom-core) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phantom-core?window=all) Price · $25.43 · 50.86 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $22.89 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.38% · 314 openings, odds method Variance · 11.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 27 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 24 openings · below min 7 days · 82.14% ±40.35 270 openings 30 days · 83.38% ±37.42 314 openings since tracking started · 83.38% ±37.42 314 openings -0.5% 98.8% 198.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phantom-core?window=24h) | 24 | 62.23% ±135.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phantom-core?window=7d) | 270 | 82.14% ±40.4 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phantom-core) | 314 | 83.38% ±37.4 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phantom-core?window=all) | 314 | 83.38% ±37.4 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 314 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 400 | $1,365 2,729 coins | 14.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $620 1,241 coins | 13.6% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $267 535 coins | 11.7% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.96× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $125 250 coins | 10.9% | 10 | 6.3 | 1.59× | | [USP-S \| Serum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-factory-new) | 12.0% | $42.01 84.01 coins | 22.0% | 30 | 37.7 | 0.80× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 15.0% | $25.16 50.31 coins | 16.5% | 47 | 47.1 | 1.00× | | [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 25.0% | $5.99 11.97 coins | 6.5% | 88 | 78.5 | 1.12× | | [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-field-tested) | 44.3% | $2.01 4.01 coins | 3.9% | 135 | 138.9 | 0.97× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $25.43 50.86 coins $1,365 2,729 coins 53.66x 2026-11-09 11:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=phantom-core) [Nova | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-field-tested) Hidden $25.43 50.86 coins $2.01 4.01 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $25.43 50.86 coins $25.16 50.31 coins 0.99x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $25.43 50.86 coins $25.16 50.31 coins 0.99x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $25.43 50.86 coins $25.16 50.31 coins 0.99x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [USP-S | Serum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-factory-new) Hidden $25.43 50.86 coins $42.01 84.01 coins 1.65x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) Hidden $25.43 50.86 coins $5.99 11.97 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [USP-S | Serum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-factory-new) Hidden $25.43 50.86 coins $42.01 84.01 coins 1.65x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [USP-S | Serum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $25.43 50.86 coins $42.01 84.01 coins 1.65x 2026-11-11 18:35 UTC [Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) Hidden $25.43 50.86 coins $5.99 11.97 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC [Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) Hidden $25.43 50.86 coins $5.99 11.97 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 16:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $25.43 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.3% covert knife 0.5% gold 2.0% classified 37.0% Rare 15.0% consumer 44.3% best hit $1,365 (53.66x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt