--- title: "Phantom Doppler case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Phantom Doppler ($50.44) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 12 items with odds, observed 79.70% over 1,271 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phantom-doppler rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Phantom Doppler](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phantom-doppler) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Phantom Doppler A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phantom-doppler?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phantom-doppler?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phantom-doppler) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phantom-doppler?window=all) Price · $50.44 · 101 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $45.39 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.70% · 1,271 openings, odds method Variance · 12.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 31 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94 openings · below min 7 days · 82.53% ±20.79 1,109 openings 30 days · 79.70% ±19.42 1,271 openings since tracking started · 79.70% ±19.42 1,271 openings 5.0% 77.0% 149.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phantom-doppler?window=24h) | 94 | 77.07% ±71.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phantom-doppler?window=7d) | 1,109 | 82.53% ±20.8 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phantom-doppler) | 1,271 | 79.70% ±19.4 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phantom-doppler?window=all) | 1,271 | 79.70% ±19.4 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,295 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,592 7,183 coins | 7.9% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,813 5,625 coins | 6.2% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.54× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $1,002 2,005 coins | 4.4% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× | | [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $658 1,316 coins | 10.1% | 11 | 9.1 | 1.21× | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $595 1,191 coins | 13.1% | 11 | 13.0 | 0.85× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $462 923 coins | 11.2% | 9 | 14.2 | 0.63× | | [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $306 612 coins | 8.8% | 16 | 16.8 | 0.95× | | [Souvenir AUG \| Contractor (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-contractor-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $150 300 coins | 5.0% | 18 | 19.4 | 0.93× | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $106 212 coins | 3.7% | 22 | 20.7 | 1.06× | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $75.38 151 coins | 5.0% | 27 | 38.9 | 0.69× | | [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) | 40.0% | $18.01 36.01 coins | 15.9% | 527 | 518.0 | 1.02× | | [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 49.4% | $8.01 16.02 coins | 8.7% | 650 | 639.7 | 1.02× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $50.44 101 coins $2,813 5,625 coins 55.76x 2026-11-09 00:21 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $50.44 101 coins $2,813 5,625 coins 55.76x 2026-11-09 00:08 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.44 101 coins $1,002 2,005 coins 19.87x 2026-11-04 21:37 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.44 101 coins $1,002 2,005 coins 19.87x 2026-11-04 21:17 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) [YGSuie](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/YGSuie) $50.44 101 coins $658 1,316 coins 13.05x 2026-11-09 00:24 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $50.44 101 coins $658 1,316 coins 13.05x 2026-11-09 00:22 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $50.44 101 coins $658 1,316 coins 13.05x 2026-11-09 00:21 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $50.44 101 coins $658 1,316 coins 13.05x 2026-11-09 00:20 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $50.44 101 coins $658 1,316 coins 13.05x 2026-11-09 00:19 UTC [SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-factory-new) Hidden $50.44 101 coins $658 1,316 coins 13.05x 2026-11-09 00:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=phantom-doppler) [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) Hidden $50.44 101 coins $8.01 16.02 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) Hidden $50.44 101 coins $8.01 16.02 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) Hidden $50.44 101 coins $18.01 36.01 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) Hidden $50.44 101 coins $18.01 36.01 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) Hidden $50.44 101 coins $18.01 36.01 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) Hidden $50.44 101 coins $306 612 coins 6.06x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) Hidden $50.44 101 coins $8.01 16.02 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) [alexpaz050](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/alexpaz050) $50.44 101 coins $18.01 36.01 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 10:30 UTC [P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) Hidden $50.44 101 coins $8.01 16.02 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) Hidden $50.44 101 coins $18.01 36.01 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $50.44 | 89.99% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 52.8% classified 3.3% rare 1.1% restricted 1.3% Consumer Grade 1.5% industrial 40.0% best hit $2,813 (55.76x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt