--- title: "Phase case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Phase ($0.29) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.88% from 9 items with odds, observed 87.86% over 4,013 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phase rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Phase](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phase) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Phase A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phase?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phase?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phase) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phase?window=all) Price · $0.29 · 0.57 coins Advertised RTP · 88.88% · EV $0.25 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.86% · 4,013 openings, odds method Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 88.06% ±14.40 1,027 openings 7 days · 88.45% ±7.76 3,539 openings 30 days · 87.86% ±7.29 4,013 openings since tracking started · 87.86% ±7.29 4,013 openings 73.0% 88.0% 103.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phase?window=24h) | 1,027 | 88.06% ±14.4 | −0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phase?window=7d) | 3,539 | 88.45% ±7.76 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phase) | 4,013 | 87.86% ±7.29 | −0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phase?window=all) | 4,013 | 87.86% ±7.29 | −0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,021 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $5.51 11.01 coins | 21.7% | 45 | 40.2 | 1.12× | | [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $2.55 5.09 coins | 20.1% | 72 | 80.4 | 0.90× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.01 2.02 coins | 12.0% | 119 | 120.6 | 0.99× | | [SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.77 1.54 coins | 12.2% | 154 | 160.8 | 0.96× | | [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 1 in 20 | $0.50 1 coins | 9.9% | 196 | 201.1 | 0.97× | | [Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $0.34 0.68 coins | 14.8% | 411 | 442.3 | 0.93× | | [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 11.0% | $0.15 0.3 coins | 6.5% | 458 | 442.3 | 1.04× | | [Nova \| Mandrel (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-field-tested) | 28.0% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 2.2% | 1,159 | 1125.9 | 1.03× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 35.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.7% | 1,407 | 1407.3 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=phase) [Nova | Mandrel (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-field-tested) Hidden $0.28 0.57 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.28 0.57 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.28 0.57 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [Nova | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-army-sheen-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.28 0.57 coins $0.34 0.68 coins 1.19x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [Nova | Mandrel (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-field-tested) Hidden $0.28 0.57 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.28 0.57 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) Hidden $0.28 0.57 coins $0.77 1.54 coins 2.70x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $0.28 0.57 coins $0.15 0.3 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.28 0.57 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC [SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-spring-twilly-factory-new) Hidden $0.28 0.57 coins $0.77 1.54 coins 2.70x 2026-11-11 12:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.28 | 88.88% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% consumer 2.0% #8847ff 3.0% Mil Spec Grade 4.0% #4b69ff 40.0% gray 11.0% Rare 11.0% Common 28.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.88 on average: an expected loss of $11.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt