--- title: "Phoenix Doppler case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Phoenix Doppler ($29.75) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 11 items with odds, observed 84.02% over 648 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phoenix-doppler rendered: 2026-11-11T17:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Phoenix Doppler](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phoenix-doppler) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Phoenix Doppler A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phoenix-doppler?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phoenix-doppler?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phoenix-doppler) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phoenix-doppler?window=all) Price · $29.75 · 59.5 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $26.77 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.02% · 648 openings, odds method Variance · 14.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 56 openings · below min 7 days · 89.06% ±30.60 600 openings 30 days · 84.02% ±29.45 648 openings since tracking started · 84.02% ±29.45 648 openings -0.5% 61.3% 123.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phoenix-doppler?window=24h) | 56 | 22.14% ±100.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phoenix-doppler?window=7d) | 600 | 89.06% ±30.6 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phoenix-doppler) | 648 | 84.02% ±29.4 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/phoenix-doppler?window=all) | 648 | 84.02% ±29.4 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 648 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $1,022 2,043 coins | 38.2% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $405 809 coins | 15.1% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.93× | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $296 592 coins | 11.1% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.77× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $130 260 coins | 4.9% | 2 | 6.5 | 0.31× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $124 248 coins | 4.6% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $114 227 coins | 4.2% | 2 | 6.5 | 0.31× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $86.14 172 coins | 3.2% | 9 | 6.5 | 1.39× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $78.85 158 coins | 2.9% | 3 | 6.5 | 0.46× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $76.83 154 coins | 2.9% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $76.07 152 coins | 2.8% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.93× | | [AUG \| Random Access (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-factory-new) | 90.0% | $3.00 5.99 coins | 10.1% | 594 | 583.2 | 1.02× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $29.75 59.5 coins $1,022 2,043 coins 34.34x 2026-11-08 17:09 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $29.75 59.5 coins $1,022 2,043 coins 34.34x 2026-11-08 08:56 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [HAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/HAL) $29.75 59.5 coins $1,022 2,043 coins 34.34x 2026-11-06 21:27 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $29.75 59.5 coins $1,022 2,043 coins 34.34x 2026-11-06 00:38 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $29.75 59.5 coins $1,022 2,043 coins 34.34x 2026-11-06 00:30 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $29.75 59.5 coins $1,022 2,043 coins 34.34x 2026-11-05 04:45 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $29.75 59.5 coins $1,022 2,043 coins 34.34x 2026-11-05 04:36 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=phoenix-doppler) [AUG | Random Access (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-factory-new) Hidden $29.75 59.5 coins $3.00 5.99 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-factory-new) Hidden $29.75 59.5 coins $3.00 5.99 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-factory-new) Hidden $29.75 59.5 coins $3.00 5.99 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-factory-new) Hidden $29.75 59.5 coins $3.00 5.99 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-factory-new) Hidden $29.75 59.5 coins $3.00 5.99 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-factory-new) Hidden $29.75 59.5 coins $3.00 5.99 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-factory-new) Hidden $29.75 59.5 coins $3.00 5.99 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-factory-new) Hidden $29.75 59.5 coins $3.00 5.99 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 07:54 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-factory-new) Hidden $29.75 59.5 coins $3.00 5.99 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 07:50 UTC [AUG | Random Access (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-random-access-factory-new) Hidden $29.75 59.5 coins $3.00 5.99 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 07:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.75 | 89.99% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.0% covert knife 5.0% #ffd700 1.0% gold 1.0% restricted 90.0% best hit $1,022 (34.34x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt