--- title: "Pistol Paradise case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Pistol Paradise ($45.56) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 18 items with odds, observed 10.92% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pistol-paradise rendered: 2026-11-12T00:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Pistol Paradise](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pistol-paradise) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Pistol Paradise A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pistol-paradise?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pistol-paradise?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pistol-paradise) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pistol-paradise?window=all) Price · $45.56 · 91.11 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $41.00 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 10.92% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min -0.5% 86.3% 173.0% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pistol-paradise?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pistol-paradise?window=7d) | 6 | 10.92% ±161.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pistol-paradise) | 6 | 10.92% ±161.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pistol-paradise?window=all) | 6 | 10.92% ±161.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,182 2,363 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $462 923 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $376 752 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $370 740 coins | 9.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $329 658 coins | 8.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $325 650 coins | 7.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-chalice-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $312 625 coins | 7.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $304 607 coins | 7.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $206 413 coins | 10.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $181 361 coins | 8.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $95.48 191 coins | 7.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $62.66 125 coins | 4.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) weapon · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 33 | $44.32 88.63 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [P2000 \| Grassland Leaves (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-leaves-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $40.54 81.07 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $40.01 80.02 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [P2000 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $25.74 51.47 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-factory-new) | 21.1% | $9.73 19.46 coins | 5.0% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.58× | | [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 51.0% | $2.60 5.19 coins | 3.2% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.31× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=pistol-paradise) [Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $45.56 91.11 coins $2.60 5.19 coins 0.06x 2026-11-05 20:02 UTC [Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) [Ravtok](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Ravtok) $45.56 91.11 coins $2.60 5.19 coins 0.06x 2026-11-05 20:02 UTC [Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $45.56 91.11 coins $2.60 5.19 coins 0.06x 2026-11-05 20:02 UTC [P2000 | Wicked Sick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-factory-new) Hidden $45.56 91.11 coins $9.73 19.46 coins 0.21x 2026-11-05 20:02 UTC [Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) Hidden $45.56 91.11 coins $2.60 5.19 coins 0.06x 2026-11-05 20:02 UTC [P2000 | Wicked Sick (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-factory-new) Hidden $45.56 91.11 coins $9.73 19.46 coins 0.21x 2026-11-05 20:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $45.56 | 89.99% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 7.1% rare 0.3% Restricted 0.5% covert 5.0% mil spec 6.0% industrial 9.0% classified 21.1% consumer 51.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt