---
title: "Pistol Pop case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Pistol Pop ($3.59) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 16 items with odds, observed 88.67% over 11.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pistol-pop
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Pistol Pop](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pistol-pop)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Pistol Pop

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pistol-pop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pistol-pop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pistol-pop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pistol-pop?window=all)

Price · $3.59 · 7.17 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $3.23 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.67% · 11.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 9.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.29% ±16.48 1,294 openings

7 days · 86.32% ±6.67 7,902 openings

30 days · 88.67% ±5.51 11.6K openings

since tracking started · 88.67% ±5.51 11.6K openings

73.0% 90.3% 107.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pistol-pop?window=24h) | 1,294 | 90.29% ±16.5 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pistol-pop?window=7d) | 7,902 | 86.32% ±6.67 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pistol-pop) | 11.6K | 88.67% ±5.51 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pistol-pop?window=all) | 11.6K | 88.67% ±5.51 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $250 500 coins | 3.9% | 10 | 5.8 | 1.73× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $38.98 77.96 coins | 12.1% | 115 | 115.9 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $33.81 67.61 coins | 10.5% | 128 | 115.9 | 1.10× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $33.60 67.19 coins | 10.4% | 103 | 115.9 | 0.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $32.01 64.02 coins | 9.9% | 102 | 115.9 | 0.88× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $31.27 62.54 coins | 9.7% | 124 | 115.9 | 1.07× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $29.87 59.74 coins | 9.3% | 86 | 115.9 | 0.74× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $28.89 57.77 coins | 9.0% | 109 | 115.9 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $27.98 55.96 coins | 8.7% | 126 | 115.9 | 1.09× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $26.63 53.26 coins | 8.3% | 93 | 115.9 | 0.80× |
| [P2000 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $25.74 51.47 coins | 8.0% | 117 | 115.9 | 1.01× |
| [P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-lifted-spirits-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 0.1% | 2,140 | 2085.8 | 1.03× |
| [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.1% | 2,027 | 2085.8 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.1% | 2,118 | 2085.8 | 1.02× |
| [Tec-9 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-urban-ddpat-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 2,105 | 2085.8 | 1.01× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 18.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 2,091 | 2085.8 | 1.00× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) Hidden $3.59 7.17 coins $250 500 coins 69.74x 2026-11-10 18:38 UTC

[Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) [LingSAD](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/LingSAD) $3.59 7.17 coins $250 500 coins 69.74x 2026-11-10 09:57 UTC

[Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) Hidden $3.59 7.17 coins $250 500 coins 69.74x 2026-11-06 19:04 UTC

[Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) Hidden $3.59 7.17 coins $250 500 coins 69.74x 2026-11-05 06:13 UTC

[Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) [morasti](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/morasti) $3.59 7.17 coins $250 500 coins 69.74x 2026-11-05 01:18 UTC

[Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) Hidden $3.59 7.17 coins $250 500 coins 69.74x 2026-11-04 18:30 UTC

[Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) Hidden $3.59 7.17 coins $250 500 coins 69.74x 2026-11-03 23:56 UTC

[Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) Hidden $3.59 7.17 coins $250 500 coins 69.74x 2026-11-03 22:20 UTC

[Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) Hidden $3.59 7.17 coins $250 500 coins 69.74x 2026-11-03 21:34 UTC

[Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) Hidden $3.59 7.17 coins $250 500 coins 69.74x 2026-11-03 05:20 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=pistol-pop)

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-field-tested) Hidden $3.59 7.17 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:02 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-field-tested) Hidden $3.59 7.17 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:02 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-field-tested) Hidden $3.59 7.17 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:02 UTC

[Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-urban-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $3.59 7.17 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:02 UTC

[Tec-9 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-urban-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $3.59 7.17 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:02 UTC

[P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-lifted-spirits-field-tested) Hidden $3.59 7.17 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:02 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $3.59 7.17 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:02 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-field-tested) Hidden $3.59 7.17 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:02 UTC

[P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $3.59 7.17 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:02 UTC

[Glock-18 | Winterized (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-field-tested) Hidden $3.59 7.17 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.59 | 89.99% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 18.0% industrial 1.1% classified 4.0% Restricted 1.0% restricted 1.0% covert 2.0% mil spec 1.0% consumer 36.0% Rare 18.0% #4b69ff 18.0% best hit $250 (69.74x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt