--- title: "Planting case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Planting ($1.25) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.90% from 14 items with odds, observed 88.88% over 716 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/planting rendered: 2026-11-11T17:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Planting](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/planting) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Planting A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/planting?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/planting?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/planting) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/planting?window=all) Price · $1.25 · 2.49 coins Advertised RTP · 89.90% · EV $1.12 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.88% · 716 openings, odds method Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 76.53% ±25.48 180 openings 7 days · 91.37% ±13.43 648 openings 30 days · 88.88% ±12.77 716 openings since tracking started · 88.88% ±12.77 716 openings 50.5% 78.0% 105.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/planting?window=24h) | 180 | 76.53% ±25.5 | −1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/planting?window=7d) | 648 | 91.37% ±13.4 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/planting) | 716 | 88.88% ±12.8 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/planting?window=all) | 716 | 88.88% ±12.8 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 716 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $27.98 55.96 coins | 2.5% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $26.67 53.34 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [P2000 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $25.74 51.47 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [AUG \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $6.87 13.73 coins | 6.1% | 11 | 7.2 | 1.54× | | [MP7 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $6.56 13.11 coins | 5.9% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.26× | | [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $6.04 12.08 coins | 8.1% | 6 | 10.7 | 0.56× | | [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4.88 9.75 coins | 13.1% | 25 | 21.5 | 1.16× | | [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4.72 9.43 coins | 12.6% | 28 | 21.5 | 1.30× | | [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4.00 8 coins | 10.7% | 13 | 21.5 | 0.61× | | [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2.54 5.08 coins | 11.3% | 39 | 35.8 | 1.09× | | [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.40 2.8 coins | 6.3% | 33 | 35.8 | 0.92× | | [XM1014 \| Scumbria (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-scumbria-factory-new) | 10.0% | $0.62 1.24 coins | 5.5% | 61 | 71.6 | 0.85× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.53 1.06 coins | 4.7% | 65 | 71.6 | 0.91× | | [Dual Berettas \| Stained (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) | 57.2% | $0.17 0.33 coins | 8.4% | 425 | 409.6 | 1.04× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=planting) [AWP | Phobos (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.25 2.49 coins $0.53 1.06 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) Hidden $1.25 2.49 coins $0.17 0.33 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) Hidden $1.25 2.49 coins $0.17 0.33 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) Hidden $1.25 2.49 coins $6.04 12.08 coins 4.85x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) Hidden $1.25 2.49 coins $0.17 0.33 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) Hidden $1.25 2.49 coins $0.17 0.33 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) Hidden $1.25 2.49 coins $0.17 0.33 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $1.25 2.49 coins $0.17 0.33 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) Hidden $1.25 2.49 coins $0.17 0.33 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:11 UTC [Dual Berettas | Stained (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-factory-new) [Crickzz1](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Crickzz1) $1.25 2.49 coins $0.17 0.33 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 14:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.25 | 89.90% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed industrial 57.3% classified 4.6% mil spec 6.1% restricted 1.0% Rare 13.0% covert 3.0% #4b69ff 5.0% #8847ff 10.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.90 on average: an expected loss of $10.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt