---
title: "Plump case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Plump ($20.73) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.01% from 24 items with odds, observed 83.17% over 555 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/plump
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Plump](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/plump)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Plump

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/plump?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/plump?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/plump) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/plump?window=all)

Price · $20.73 · 41.45 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.01% · EV $18.65 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.17% · 555 openings, odds method

Variance · 8.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 87.69% ±25.63 469 openings

30 days · 83.17% ±23.56 555 openings

since tracking started · 83.17% ±23.56 555 openings

59.0% 86.5% 114.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/plump?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/plump?window=7d) | 469 | 87.69% ±25.6 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/plump) | 555 | 83.17% ±23.6 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/plump?window=all) | 555 | 83.17% ±23.6 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 555 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $3,722 7,444 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| 3DMAX (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 20,000 | $3,314 6,628 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,371 2,743 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,317 2,634 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $650 1,300 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $601 1,202 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $580 1,160 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-urban-masked-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $555 1,110 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 10,000 | $538 1,077 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 10,000 | $531 1,062 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-classic-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $527 1,055 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $138 275 coins | 14.8% | 13 | 11.1 | 1.17× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $134 267 coins | 14.3% | 13 | 11.1 | 1.17× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $133 267 coins | 14.3% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $130 260 coins | 14.0% | 11 | 11.1 | 0.99× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $128 255 coins | 13.7% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $54.32 109 coins | 5.8% | 11 | 11.1 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $52.31 105 coins | 5.6% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| CaliCamo (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-calicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $50.61 101 coins | 5.4% | 9 | 11.1 | 0.81× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $33.56 67.12 coins | 3.6% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× |
| [Galil AR \| Winter Forest (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-winter-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $27.96 55.92 coins | 3.0% | 9 | 11.1 | 0.81× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) | 26.5% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 146 | 147.1 | 0.99× |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) | 26.5% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 147 | 147.1 | 1.00× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 26.9% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 160 | 149.3 | 1.07× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=plump)

[SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $20.73 41.45 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) Hidden $20.73 41.45 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC

[FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-well-worn) Hidden $20.73 41.45 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $20.73 41.45 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $20.73 41.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-field-tested) [rekztimmy](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/rekztimmy) $20.73 41.45 coins $138 275 coins 6.64x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $20.73 41.45 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $20.73 41.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:53 UTC

[P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $20.73 41.45 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:52 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) Hidden $20.73 41.45 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 12:52 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.73 | 90.01% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 6.1% remarkable 0.0% classified 0.0% gold 0.0% Covert 0.0% covert knife 2.0% #ffd700 2.0% rare 2.0% restricted 2.0% other 2.0% extraordinary 2.0% Industrial Grade 2.0% consumer 26.5% industrial 26.5% #4b69ff 26.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.01 on average: an expected loss of $9.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt