--- title: "Pool Party case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Pool Party ($4.56) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.94% from 8 items with odds, observed 106.49% over 396 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pool-party rendered: 2026-11-11T18:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Pool Party](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pool-party) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Pool Party A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pool-party?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pool-party?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pool-party) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pool-party?window=all) Price · $4.56 · 9.12 coins Advertised RTP · 89.94% · EV $4.10 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 106.49% · 396 openings, odds method Variance · 6.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 90.94% ±31.14 268 openings 30 days · 106.49% ±25.62 396 openings since tracking started · 106.49% ±25.62 396 openings -0.5% 107.3% 215.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pool-party?window=24h) | 16 | 86.99% ±127.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pool-party?window=7d) | 268 | 90.94% ±31.1 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pool-party) | 396 | 106.49% ±25.6 | +1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pool-party?window=all) | 396 | 106.49% ±25.6 | +1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 396 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $139 279 coins | 17.0% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.01× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $69.39 139 coins | 8.5% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.02× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $24.60 49.19 coins | 24.0% | 25 | 15.8 | 1.58× | | [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $9.52 19.03 coins | 11.6% | 19 | 19.8 | 0.96× | | [P90 \| Blind Spot (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-factory-new) | 10.0% | $7.76 15.52 coins | 18.9% | 36 | 39.6 | 0.91× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 20.0% | $2.36 4.72 coins | 11.5% | 68 | 79.2 | 0.86× | | [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 17.0% | $1.53 3.05 coins | 6.3% | 61 | 67.3 | 0.91× | | [SCAR-20 \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) | 43.0% | $0.21 0.42 coins | 2.2% | 181 | 170.3 | 1.06× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=pool-party) [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $4.56 9.12 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $4.56 9.12 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) Hidden $4.56 9.12 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $4.56 9.12 coins $9.52 19.03 coins 2.09x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $4.56 9.12 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) Hidden $4.56 9.12 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-factory-new) Hidden $4.56 9.12 coins $7.76 15.52 coins 1.70x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [SCAR-20 | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-blueprint-factory-new) [Sorhex](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Sorhex) $4.56 9.12 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC [M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) Hidden $4.56 9.12 coins $24.60 49.19 coins 5.39x 2026-11-10 22:31 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) Hidden $4.56 9.12 coins $1.53 3.05 coins 0.33x 2026-11-10 22:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.56 | 89.94% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 17.5% gold 0.5% classified 24.0% Mythical 15.0% #4b69ff 43.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.94 on average: an expected loss of $10.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt