--- title: "Pre Aim case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Pre Aim ($12.69) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 11 items with odds, observed 88.94% over 11.8K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pre-aim rendered: 2026-11-11T15:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Pre Aim](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pre-aim) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Pre Aim A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pre-aim?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pre-aim?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pre-aim) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pre-aim?window=all) Price · $12.69 · 25.37 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $11.42 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.94% · 11.8K openings, odds method Variance · 42.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 125 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 80.71% ±45.48 785 openings 7 days · 88.59% ±12.81 9,894 openings 30 days · 88.94% ±11.74 11.8K openings since tracking started · 88.94% ±11.74 11.8K openings 34.5% 80.8% 127.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pre-aim?window=24h) | 785 | 80.71% ±45.5 | −0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pre-aim?window=7d) | 9,894 | 88.59% ±12.8 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pre-aim) | 11.8K | 88.94% ±11.7 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pre-aim?window=all) | 11.8K | 88.94% ±11.7 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.8K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $1,266 2,533 coins | 22.2% | 20 | 23.6 | 0.85× | | [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $758 1,515 coins | 19.9% | 35 | 35.3 | 0.99× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333 | $501 1,002 coins | 13.2% | 35 | 35.3 | 0.99× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $424 847 coins | 11.1% | 44 | 35.3 | 1.24× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Doodle Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-doodle-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $361 722 coins | 9.5% | 32 | 35.3 | 0.91× | | [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $301 602 coins | 7.9% | 36 | 35.3 | 1.02× | | [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $30.12 60.24 coins | 7.9% | 386 | 353.4 | 1.09× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $25.16 50.31 coins | 6.6% | 343 | 353.4 | 0.97× | | [P2000 \| Handgun (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-field-tested) | 28.0% | $0.35 0.7 coins | 0.9% | 3,261 | 3298.7 | 0.99× | | [Tec-9 \| Phoenix Chalk (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-phoenix-chalk-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.20 0.4 coins | 0.5% | 3,531 | 3534.3 | 1.00× | | [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) | 34.3% | $0.10 0.2 coins | 0.3% | 4,058 | 4040.9 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $12.69 25.37 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 99.84x 2026-11-11 13:02 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $12.69 25.37 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 99.84x 2026-11-09 00:17 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $12.69 25.37 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 99.84x 2026-11-08 19:56 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $12.69 25.37 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 99.84x 2026-11-08 18:21 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $12.69 25.37 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 99.84x 2026-11-08 11:00 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $12.69 25.37 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 99.84x 2026-11-07 22:50 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $12.69 25.37 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 99.84x 2026-11-07 18:31 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $12.69 25.37 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 99.84x 2026-11-07 17:02 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $12.69 25.37 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 99.84x 2026-11-06 01:23 UTC [Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) Hidden $12.69 25.37 coins $1,266 2,533 coins 99.84x 2026-11-06 00:27 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=pre-aim) [P2000 | Handgun (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-field-tested) Hidden $12.69 25.37 coins $0.35 0.7 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [P2000 | Handgun (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-field-tested) Hidden $12.69 25.37 coins $0.35 0.7 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [Tec-9 | Phoenix Chalk (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-phoenix-chalk-field-tested) Hidden $12.69 25.37 coins $0.20 0.4 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [Tec-9 | Phoenix Chalk (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-phoenix-chalk-field-tested) Hidden $12.69 25.37 coins $0.20 0.4 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [Tec-9 | Phoenix Chalk (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-phoenix-chalk-field-tested) Hidden $12.69 25.37 coins $0.20 0.4 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [Tec-9 | Phoenix Chalk (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-phoenix-chalk-field-tested) [return](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/return) $12.69 25.37 coins $0.20 0.4 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [P2000 | Handgun (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-field-tested) Hidden $12.69 25.37 coins $0.35 0.7 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) Hidden $12.69 25.37 coins $0.10 0.2 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) Hidden $12.69 25.37 coins $0.10 0.2 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC [Tec-9 | Phoenix Chalk (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-phoenix-chalk-field-tested) Hidden $12.69 25.37 coins $0.20 0.4 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.69 | 90.00% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.5% #eb4b4b 0.3% Covert 0.3% Restricted 0.3% other 0.3% #8847ff 31.0% Rare 3.0% Consumer Grade 30.0% blue 34.3% best hit $1,266 (99.84x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt