--- title: "Primal case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Primal ($12.83) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 7 items with odds, observed 78.81% over 131 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/primal rendered: 2026-11-11T14:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Primal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/primal) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Primal A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/primal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/primal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/primal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/primal?window=all) Price · $12.83 · 25.65 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $11.54 from 7 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.81% · 131 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 78.81% ±12.80 131 openings 30 days · 78.81% ±12.80 131 openings since tracking started · 78.81% ±12.80 131 openings 65.5% 79.0% 92.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/primal?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/primal?window=7d) | 131 | 78.81% ±12.8 | −1.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/primal) | 131 | 78.81% ±12.8 | −1.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/primal?window=all) | 131 | 78.81% ±12.8 | −1.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 131 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $39.30 78.6 coins | 17.0% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.76× | | [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 10.0% | $21.68 43.36 coins | 18.8% | 12 | 13.1 | 0.92× | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 10.0% | $17.02 34.04 coins | 14.7% | 9 | 13.1 | 0.69× | | [G3SG1 \| New Roots (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-factory-new) | 10.0% | $15.66 31.32 coins | 13.6% | 14 | 13.1 | 1.07× | | [XM1014 \| Banana Leaf (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-banana-leaf-factory-new) | 15.0% | $15.43 30.85 coins | 20.0% | 16 | 19.6 | 0.81× | | [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) | 20.0% | $7.55 15.09 coins | 13.1% | 26 | 26.2 | 0.99× | | [P90 \| Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) | 30.0% | $1.06 2.12 coins | 2.8% | 49 | 39.3 | 1.25× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=primal) [G3SG1 | New Roots (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-factory-new) Hidden $12.83 25.65 coins $15.66 31.32 coins 1.22x 2026-11-08 19:05 UTC [XM1014 | Banana Leaf (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-banana-leaf-factory-new) Hidden $12.83 25.65 coins $15.43 30.85 coins 1.20x 2026-11-08 19:05 UTC [XM1014 | Banana Leaf (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-banana-leaf-factory-new) Hidden $12.83 25.65 coins $15.43 30.85 coins 1.20x 2026-11-08 19:05 UTC [USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) Hidden $12.83 25.65 coins $17.02 34.04 coins 1.33x 2026-11-08 19:05 UTC [P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) Hidden $12.83 25.65 coins $1.06 2.12 coins 0.08x 2026-11-08 19:05 UTC [M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) Hidden $12.83 25.65 coins $7.55 15.09 coins 0.59x 2026-11-08 19:05 UTC [P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) Hidden $12.83 25.65 coins $1.06 2.12 coins 0.08x 2026-11-08 19:05 UTC [P90 | Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) Hidden $12.83 25.65 coins $1.06 2.12 coins 0.08x 2026-11-08 19:05 UTC [USP-S | Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) Hidden $12.83 25.65 coins $17.02 34.04 coins 1.33x 2026-11-08 18:55 UTC [Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-factory-new) Hidden $12.83 25.65 coins $39.30 78.6 coins 3.06x 2026-11-08 18:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.83 | 89.99% | 7 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 5.0% covert 30.0% restricted 40.0% Mil Spec Grade 10.0% Industrial Grade 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt