--- title: "Prime Emperor case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Prime Emperor ($16.00) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 8 items with odds, observed 61.78% over 378 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prime-emperor rendered: 2026-11-11T18:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Prime Emperor](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prime-emperor) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Prime Emperor A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prime-emperor?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prime-emperor?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prime-emperor) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prime-emperor?window=all) Price · $16.00 · 31.99 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $14.39 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 61.78% · 378 openings, odds method Variance · 11.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 76 openings · below min 7 days · 59.04% ±34.65 366 openings 30 days · 61.78% ±34.10 378 openings since tracking started · 61.78% ±34.10 378 openings 23.5% 107.0% 190.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prime-emperor?window=24h) | 76 | 114.00% ±76.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prime-emperor?window=7d) | 366 | 59.04% ±34.6 | −1.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prime-emperor) | 378 | 61.78% ±34.1 | −1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prime-emperor?window=all) | 378 | 61.78% ±34.1 | −1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 378 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $250 500 coins | 86.9% | 12 | 18.9 | 0.63× | | [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-field-tested) | 13.0% | $3.51 7.01 coins | 3.2% | 50 | 49.1 | 1.02× | | [Dual Berettas \| Briar (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-briar-factory-new) | 13.0% | $3.02 6.04 coins | 2.7% | 49 | 49.1 | 1.00× | | [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) | 13.0% | $2.54 5.08 coins | 2.3% | 50 | 49.1 | 1.02× | | [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-field-tested) | 14.0% | $2.01 4.01 coins | 2.0% | 54 | 52.9 | 1.02× | | [P90 \| Verdant Growth (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-verdant-growth-factory-new) | 14.0% | $1.52 3.04 coins | 1.5% | 64 | 52.9 | 1.21× | | [G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) | 14.0% | $1.01 2.02 coins | 1.0% | 54 | 52.9 | 1.02× | | [AUG \| Ricochet (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-factory-new) | 14.0% | $0.51 1.02 coins | 0.5% | 45 | 52.9 | 0.85× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=prime-emperor) [Nova | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-field-tested) Hidden $16.00 31.99 coins $2.01 4.01 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-field-tested) Hidden $16.00 31.99 coins $2.01 4.01 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-field-tested) Hidden $16.00 31.99 coins $2.01 4.01 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [Nova | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-field-tested) Hidden $16.00 31.99 coins $2.01 4.01 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $16.00 31.99 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-field-tested) Hidden $16.00 31.99 coins $3.51 7.01 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) Hidden $16.00 31.99 coins $2.54 5.08 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [Dual Berettas | Briar (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-briar-factory-new) Hidden $16.00 31.99 coins $3.02 6.04 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [P90 | Verdant Growth (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-verdant-growth-factory-new) Hidden $16.00 31.99 coins $1.52 3.04 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC [P90 | Verdant Growth (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-verdant-growth-factory-new) Hidden $16.00 31.99 coins $1.52 3.04 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $16.00 | 89.98% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.0% Uncommon 13.0% consumer 27.0% #4b69ff 13.0% industrial 14.0% mil spec 28.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt