---
title: "Progressive case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Progressive ($12.52) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 15 items with odds, observed 81.53% over 6,144 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/progressive
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Progressive](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/progressive)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Progressive

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/progressive?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/progressive?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/progressive) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/progressive?window=all)

Price · $12.52 · 25.03 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $11.26 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.53% · 6,144 openings, odds method

Variance · 139.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 159 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 311 openings · below min

7 days · 82.41% ±32.10 5,202 openings

30 days · 81.53% ±29.54 6,144 openings

since tracking started · 81.53% ±29.54 6,144 openings

-0.5% 94.0% 188.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/progressive?window=24h) | 311 | 56.50% ±131.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/progressive?window=7d) | 5,202 | 82.41% ±32.1 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/progressive) | 6,144 | 81.53% ±29.5 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/progressive?window=all) | 6,144 | 81.53% ±29.5 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,144 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $10.4K 20,866 coins | 9.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 5,000 | $5,754 11,508 coins | 10.2% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 2,500 | $2,643 5,286 coins | 9.4% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,024 2,049 coins | 7.3% | 8 | 4.9 | 1.63× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 625 | $513 1,025 coins | 7.3% | 8 | 9.8 | 0.81× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 313 | $256 512 coins | 7.3% | 18 | 19.7 | 0.92× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 156 | $129 258 coins | 7.3% | 41 | 39.3 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 78 | $64.02 128 coins | 7.3% | 84 | 78.6 | 1.07× |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $32.01 64.02 coins | 7.3% | 160 | 157.3 | 1.02× |
| [P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $16.06 32.11 coins | 7.3% | 311 | 314.6 | 0.99× |
| [Charm \| Disco MAC charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-disco-mac) | 10.2% | $8.00 16 coins | 7.3% | 638 | 629.1 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 19.0% | $4.00 8 coins | 6.7% | 1,163 | 1167.4 | 1.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-field-tested) | 19.0% | $2.01 4.01 coins | 3.4% | 1,165 | 1167.4 | 1.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) | 19.0% | $1.01 2.02 coins | 1.7% | 1,183 | 1167.4 | 1.01× |
| [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) | 22.5% | $0.50 1 coins | 1.0% | 1,362 | 1384.2 | 0.98× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $12.52 25.03 coins $5,754 11,508 coins 459.8x 2026-11-09 19:42 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $12.52 25.03 coins $2,643 5,286 coins 211.2x 2026-11-09 19:42 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $12.52 25.03 coins $2,643 5,286 coins 211.2x 2026-11-05 04:41 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $12.52 25.03 coins $1,024 2,049 coins 81.85x 2026-11-08 01:06 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $12.52 25.03 coins $1,024 2,049 coins 81.85x 2026-11-07 12:28 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [RallyPo](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/RallyPo) $12.52 25.03 coins $1,024 2,049 coins 81.85x 2026-11-06 17:02 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $12.52 25.03 coins $1,024 2,049 coins 81.85x 2026-11-05 19:21 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $12.52 25.03 coins $1,024 2,049 coins 81.85x 2026-11-04 22:08 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $12.52 25.03 coins $1,024 2,049 coins 81.85x 2026-11-04 12:03 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $12.52 25.03 coins $1,024 2,049 coins 81.85x 2026-11-03 17:51 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=progressive)

[UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $12.52 25.03 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $12.52 25.03 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $12.52 25.03 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $12.52 25.03 coins $32.01 64.02 coins 2.56x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $12.52 25.03 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC

[USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $12.52 25.03 coins $4.00 8 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC

[USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $12.52 25.03 coins $4.00 8 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC

[USP-S | Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) [Moon1025](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Moon1025) $12.52 25.03 coins $4.00 8 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC

[UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $12.52 25.03 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC

[Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $12.52 25.03 coins $32.01 64.02 coins 2.56x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.52 | 89.98% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.3% restricted 3.8% mil spec 24.1% uncommon 10.2% Rare 19.0% #777777 19.0% blue 22.5% best hit $5,754 (459.8x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt