--- title: "Prudent 15% case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Prudent 15% ($26.15) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.99% from 15 items with odds, observed 93.88% over 2,602 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prudent-15 rendered: 2026-11-11T17:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Prudent 15%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prudent-15) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Prudent 15% A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prudent-15?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prudent-15?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prudent-15) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prudent-15?window=all) Price · $26.15 · 52.29 coins Advertised RTP · 89.99% · EV $23.53 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.88% · 2,602 openings, odds method Variance · 44.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 58 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 281 openings · below min 7 days · 98.87% ±29.89 1,898 openings 30 days · 93.88% ±25.53 2,602 openings since tracking started · 93.88% ±25.53 2,602 openings -0.5% 77.8% 156.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prudent-15?window=24h) | 281 | 77.45% ±77.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prudent-15?window=7d) | 1,898 | 98.87% ±29.9 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prudent-15) | 2,602 | 93.88% ±25.5 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prudent-15?window=all) | 2,602 | 93.88% ±25.5 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,602 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $10.9K 21,888 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $7,752 15,504 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,962 9,924 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,757 3,515 coins | 7.5% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.54× | | [Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,598 3,196 coins | 6.8% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $544 1,087 coins | 11.6% | 14 | 13.0 | 1.08× | | [★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 200 | $500 1,000 coins | 10.6% | 17 | 13.0 | 1.31× | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $290 579 coins | 6.2% | 11 | 13.0 | 0.85× | | [★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $256 512 coins | 5.4% | 15 | 13.0 | 1.15× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $246 491 coins | 5.2% | 14 | 13.0 | 1.08× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $169 339 coins | 7.2% | 30 | 26.0 | 1.15× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $119 238 coins | 15.2% | 95 | 78.1 | 1.22× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $53.22 106 coins | 9.0% | 102 | 104.1 | 0.98× | | [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $28.89 57.77 coins | 5.2% | 126 | 111.1 | 1.13× | | [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 85.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 2,171 | 2211.7 | 0.98× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) [YGSuie](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/YGSuie) $26.15 52.29 coins $1,757 3,515 coins 67.21x 2026-11-11 04:06 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $26.15 52.29 coins $1,757 3,515 coins 67.21x 2026-11-10 03:49 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $26.15 52.29 coins $1,757 3,515 coins 67.21x 2026-11-09 19:56 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $26.15 52.29 coins $1,757 3,515 coins 67.21x 2026-11-08 21:53 UTC [Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) Hidden $26.15 52.29 coins $1,598 3,196 coins 61.12x 2026-11-07 02:07 UTC [Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) Hidden $26.15 52.29 coins $1,598 3,196 coins 61.12x 2026-11-04 20:21 UTC [Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-mjolnir-factory-new) [TMUBB](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/TMUBB) $26.15 52.29 coins $1,598 3,196 coins 61.12x 2026-11-04 08:53 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-field-tested) Hidden $26.15 52.29 coins $544 1,087 coins 20.79x 2026-11-11 04:05 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-field-tested) Hidden $26.15 52.29 coins $544 1,087 coins 20.79x 2026-11-10 13:21 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-field-tested) Hidden $26.15 52.29 coins $544 1,087 coins 20.79x 2026-11-09 21:47 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=prudent-15) [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-field-tested) Hidden $26.15 52.29 coins $53.22 106 coins 2.04x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-factory-new) Hidden $26.15 52.29 coins $28.89 57.77 coins 1.10x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $26.15 52.29 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $26.15 52.29 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $26.15 52.29 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $26.15 52.29 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-field-tested) Hidden $26.15 52.29 coins $53.22 106 coins 2.04x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $26.15 52.29 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) [divaxxdiva](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/divaxxdiva) $26.15 52.29 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $26.15 52.29 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.15 | 89.99% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed contraband 0.0% covert 5.0% legendary 0.1% classified 4.4% extraordinary 4.5% other 0.5% mil spec 0.5% #4b69ff 85.0% best hit $1,757 (67.21x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.99 on average: an expected loss of $10.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt