---
title: "Prudent 30% case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Prudent 30% ($26.60) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 15 items with odds, observed 99.63% over 1,168 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prudent-30
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Prudent 30%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prudent-30)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Prudent 30%

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prudent-30?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prudent-30?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prudent-30) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prudent-30?window=all)

Price · $26.60 · 53.19 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $23.94 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 99.63% · 1,168 openings, odds method

Variance · 24.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 4 openings · below min

7 days · 94.20% ±34.12 794 openings

30 days · 99.63% ±28.13 1,168 openings

since tracking started · 99.63% ±28.13 1,168 openings

-0.5% 240.5% 481.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prudent-30?window=24h) | 4 | 0.02% ±480.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prudent-30?window=7d) | 794 | 94.20% ±34.1 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prudent-30) | 1,168 | 99.63% ±28.1 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/prudent-30?window=all) | 1,168 | 99.63% ±28.1 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,168 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $9,900 19,800 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,803 11,607 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Charm \| Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,485 6,970 coins | 1.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,449 2,899 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $517 1,035 coins | 5.4% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 400 | $493 986 coins | 5.2% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-overgrowth-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $168 335 coins | 14.0% | 44 | 23.4 | 1.88× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $125 251 coins | 10.5% | 21 | 23.4 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $122 244 coins | 10.2% | 24 | 23.4 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $59.39 119 coins | 7.4% | 43 | 35.0 | 1.23× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $53.72 107 coins | 11.2% | 58 | 58.4 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $50.58 101 coins | 10.6% | 51 | 58.4 | 0.87× |
| [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $50.13 100 coins | 10.5% | 50 | 58.4 | 0.86× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Ava charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-ava) | 1 in 18 | $28.13 56.25 coins | 6.4% | 62 | 63.8 | 0.97× |
| [G3SG1 \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) | 70.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 810 | 817.6 | 0.99× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Charm | Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) Hidden $26.60 53.19 coins $3,485 6,970 coins 131.0x 2026-11-03 11:14 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $26.60 53.19 coins $517 1,035 coins 19.46x 2026-11-07 03:16 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $26.60 53.19 coins $517 1,035 coins 19.46x 2026-11-06 22:20 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=prudent-30)

[G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $26.60 53.19 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:12 UTC

[G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $26.60 53.19 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:12 UTC

[G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $26.60 53.19 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:12 UTC

[G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) [KocvreKK](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/KocvreKK) $26.60 53.19 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 16:12 UTC

[G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $26.60 53.19 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 13:21 UTC

[G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $26.60 53.19 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 13:21 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Overgrowth (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-overgrowth-factory-new) Hidden $26.60 53.19 coins $168 335 coins 6.30x 2026-11-10 13:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Brass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-factory-new) Hidden $26.60 53.19 coins $59.39 119 coins 2.23x 2026-11-10 13:21 UTC

[G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $26.60 53.19 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 13:21 UTC

[G3SG1 | VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-varicamo-field-tested) Hidden $26.60 53.19 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 13:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.60 | 90.00% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 9.5% #eb4b4b 0.0% Restricted 2.0% restricted 3.0% extraordinary 5.0% Industrial Grade 5.0% uncommon 5.5% industrial 70.0% best hit $3,485 (131.0x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt