--- title: "Pumpkin 5% case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Pumpkin 5% ($12.50) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 83.07% over 1,760 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pumpkin-5 rendered: 2026-11-11T22:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Pumpkin 5%](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pumpkin-5) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Pumpkin 5% A case on Chicken.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pumpkin-5?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pumpkin-5?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pumpkin-5) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pumpkin-5?window=all) Price · $12.50 · 25 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 83.07% · 1,760 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 352 openings · below min 7 days · 56.12% ±22.20 1,163 openings 30 days · 83.07% ±58.92 1,760 openings since tracking started · 83.07% ±58.92 1,760 openings 16.5% 79.5% 142.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pumpkin-5?window=24h) | 352 | 60.15% ±43.0 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pumpkin-5?window=7d) | 1,163 | 56.12% ±22.2 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pumpkin-5) | 1,760 | 83.07% ±58.9 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pumpkin-5?window=all) | 1,760 | 83.07% ±58.9 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Chicken.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [cherrylea](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/cherrylea) $12.50 25 coins $6,322 12,643 coins 505.7x 2026-11-03 12:22 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $12.50 25 coins $774 1,549 coins 61.94x 2026-11-03 20:34 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $12.50 25 coins $564 1,129 coins 45.14x 2026-11-11 18:30 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $12.50 25 coins $564 1,129 coins 45.14x 2026-11-10 23:38 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $12.50 25 coins $564 1,129 coins 45.14x 2026-11-07 03:02 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [insane67](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/insane67) $12.50 25 coins $564 1,129 coins 45.14x 2026-11-06 20:13 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $12.50 25 coins $564 1,129 coins 45.14x 2026-11-06 14:29 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $12.50 25 coins $564 1,129 coins 45.14x 2026-11-06 14:29 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $12.50 25 coins $564 1,129 coins 45.14x 2026-11-05 16:24 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=pumpkin-5) [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $12.50 25 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $12.50 25 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $12.50 25 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $12.50 25 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $12.50 25 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $12.50 25 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $12.50 25 coins $55.37 111 coins 4.43x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $12.50 25 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:58 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $12.50 25 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:57 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $12.50 25 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $6,322 (505.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.07 on average: an expected loss of $16.93 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt