--- title: "Pumpkins case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Pumpkins ($9.17) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.98% from 11 items with odds, observed 100.21% over 371 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pumpkins rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Pumpkins](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pumpkins) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Pumpkins A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pumpkins?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pumpkins?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pumpkins) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pumpkins?window=all) Price · $9.17 · 18.34 coins Advertised RTP · 89.98% · EV $8.25 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.21% · 371 openings, odds method Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 17.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 22 openings · below min 7 days · 96.83% ±12.98 333 openings 30 days · 100.21% ±12.29 371 openings since tracking started · 100.21% ±12.29 371 openings 22.0% 73.0% 124.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pumpkins?window=24h) | 22 | 72.97% ±50.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pumpkins?window=7d) | 333 | 96.83% ±13.0 | +1.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pumpkins) | 371 | 100.21% ±12.3 | +1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/pumpkins?window=all) | 371 | 100.21% ±12.3 | +1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 371 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $65.87 132 coins | 16.0% | 14 | 7.4 | 1.89× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $35.33 70.65 coins | 12.8% | 8 | 11.1 | 0.72× | | [P250 \| Splash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $24.44 48.87 coins | 8.9% | 17 | 11.1 | 1.53× | | [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $17.55 35.1 coins | 8.5% | 10 | 14.8 | 0.67× | | [SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $14.53 29.05 coins | 8.8% | 20 | 18.6 | 1.08× | | [Nova \| Antique (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $10.53 21.06 coins | 10.2% | 19 | 29.7 | 0.64× | | [XM1014 \| Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blaze-orange-field-tested) | 10.0% | $8.54 17.08 coins | 10.3% | 42 | 37.1 | 1.13× | | [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) | 15.0% | $6.27 12.54 coins | 11.4% | 58 | 55.6 | 1.04× | | [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 20.0% | $4.07 8.13 coins | 9.9% | 74 | 74.2 | 1.00× | | [MAG-7 \| Heat (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-factory-new) | 15.0% | $1.74 3.48 coins | 3.2% | 57 | 55.6 | 1.02× | | [MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) | 15.0% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 52 | 55.6 | 0.93× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=pumpkins) [Nova | Antique (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-factory-new) Hidden $9.17 18.34 coins $10.53 21.06 coins 1.15x 2026-11-10 18:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) Hidden $9.17 18.34 coins $4.07 8.13 coins 0.44x 2026-11-10 18:51 UTC [AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) [EliteLynx4233](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteLynx4233) $9.17 18.34 coins $6.27 12.54 coins 0.68x 2026-11-10 18:51 UTC [MAG-7 | Heat (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-factory-new) Hidden $9.17 18.34 coins $1.74 3.48 coins 0.19x 2026-11-10 18:51 UTC [MAG-7 | Insomnia (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-insomnia-field-tested) Hidden $9.17 18.34 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 18:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) [EliteLynx4233](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteLynx4233) $9.17 18.34 coins $4.07 8.13 coins 0.44x 2026-11-10 18:51 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) Hidden $9.17 18.34 coins $4.07 8.13 coins 0.44x 2026-11-10 18:01 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) Hidden $9.17 18.34 coins $35.33 70.65 coins 3.85x 2026-11-10 18:01 UTC [Nova | Antique (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-factory-new) Hidden $9.17 18.34 coins $10.53 21.06 coins 1.15x 2026-11-10 18:01 UTC [AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-factory-new) Hidden $9.17 18.34 coins $6.27 12.54 coins 0.68x 2026-11-10 18:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.17 | 89.98% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 10.0% covert 3.0% restricted 38.0% Mil Spec Grade 4.0% Rare 5.0% mil spec 10.0% Mythical 15.0% #4b69ff 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.98 on average: an expected loss of $10.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt