--- title: "Purple Drip case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Purple Drip ($3.72) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.90% from 12 items with odds, observed 93.13% over 1,609 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/purple-drip rendered: 2026-11-11T17:33Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Purple Drip](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/purple-drip) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Purple Drip A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/purple-drip?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/purple-drip?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/purple-drip) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/purple-drip?window=all) Price · $3.72 · 7.43 coins Advertised RTP · 89.90% · EV $3.34 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.13% · 1,609 openings, odds method Variance · 8.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 24 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 115.84% ±26.63 432 openings 7 days · 93.55% ±14.83 1,393 openings 30 days · 93.13% ±13.80 1,609 openings since tracking started · 93.13% ±13.80 1,609 openings 78.0% 110.5% 143.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/purple-drip?window=24h) | 432 | 115.84% ±26.6 | +1.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/purple-drip?window=7d) | 1,393 | 93.55% ±14.8 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/purple-drip) | 1,609 | 93.13% ±13.8 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/purple-drip?window=all) | 1,609 | 93.13% ±13.8 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,609 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $85.39 171 coins | 2.6% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.86× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $73.97 148 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 3.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $69.38 139 coins | 6.2% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.62× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $68.29 137 coins | 6.1% | 10 | 4.8 | 2.07× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $45.68 91.35 coins | 13.7% | 15 | 16.1 | 0.93× | | [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $40.42 80.83 coins | 12.1% | 21 | 16.1 | 1.31× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $34.03 68.06 coins | 12.7% | 21 | 20.1 | 1.04× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $25.16 50.31 coins | 11.7% | 24 | 24.9 | 0.96× | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $14.61 29.21 coins | 10.1% | 30 | 37.0 | 0.81× | | [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $12.90 25.79 coins | 9.7% | 43 | 40.2 | 1.07× | | [SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $12.62 25.24 coins | 9.4% | 40 | 40.2 | 0.99× | | [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) | 87.0% | $0.05 0.1 coins | 1.3% | 1,399 | 1399.8 | 1.00× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=purple-drip) [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $3.72 7.43 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $3.72 7.43 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $3.72 7.43 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $3.72 7.43 coins $25.16 50.31 coins 6.77x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $3.72 7.43 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $3.72 7.43 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $3.72 7.43 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) [BG2x](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/BG2x) $3.72 7.43 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $3.72 7.43 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $3.72 7.43 coins $0.05 0.1 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.72 | 89.90% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #ffd700 0.1% sunny 0.2% covert 2.6% Covert 0.3% classified 3.3% Rare 4.0% Mil Spec Grade 2.5% #4b69ff 87.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.90 on average: an expected loss of $10.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt