---
title: "Purple Reign case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Purple Reign ($3.58) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.94% from 16 items with odds, observed 85.42% over 4,597 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/purple-reign
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Purple Reign](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/purple-reign)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Purple Reign

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/purple-reign?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/purple-reign?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/purple-reign) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/purple-reign?window=all)

Price · $3.58 · 7.16 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.94% · EV $3.22 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.42% · 4,597 openings, odds method

Variance · 32.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 57 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 112.33% ±63.12 310 openings

7 days · 85.87% ±19.22 3,343 openings

30 days · 85.42% ±16.39 4,597 openings

since tracking started · 85.42% ±16.39 4,597 openings

48.5% 112.3% 176.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/purple-reign?window=24h) | 310 | 112.33% ±63.1 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/purple-reign?window=7d) | 3,343 | 85.87% ±19.2 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/purple-reign) | 4,597 | 85.42% ±16.4 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/purple-reign?window=all) | 4,597 | 85.42% ±16.4 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,597 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $1,385 2,771 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,227 2,453 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $774 1,549 coins | 2.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 8,000 | $519 1,037 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $375 749 coins | 3.5% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.45× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 1,250 | $236 472 coins | 5.9% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.82× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $172 345 coins | 5.4% | 2 | 4.6 | 0.44× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $84.04 168 coins | 13.0% | 28 | 23.0 | 1.22× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $61.31 123 coins | 19.0% | 51 | 46.0 | 1.11× |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $10.36 20.72 coins | 9.7% | 127 | 137.9 | 0.92× |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $6.15 12.3 coins | 5.7% | 150 | 137.9 | 1.09× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $6.11 12.21 coins | 5.7% | 136 | 137.9 | 0.99× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $4.78 9.55 coins | 4.4% | 155 | 137.9 | 1.12× |
| [Nova \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $2.55 5.09 coins | 2.4% | 138 | 137.9 | 1.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $2.01 4.01 coins | 1.9% | 146 | 137.9 | 1.06× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 80.3% | $0.64 1.27 coins | 15.8% | 3,659 | 3689.5 | 0.99× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $3.58 7.16 coins $375 749 coins 104.7x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $3.58 7.16 coins $375 749 coins 104.7x 2026-11-05 11:03 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $3.58 7.16 coins $236 472 coins 65.93x 2026-11-06 16:14 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $3.58 7.16 coins $236 472 coins 65.93x 2026-11-05 23:04 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [titteszkiraly2](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/titteszkiraly2) $3.58 7.16 coins $236 472 coins 65.93x 2026-11-03 21:12 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=purple-reign)

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $3.58 7.16 coins $0.64 1.27 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $3.58 7.16 coins $0.64 1.27 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $3.58 7.16 coins $0.64 1.27 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-field-tested) Hidden $3.58 7.16 coins $2.01 4.01 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC

[P250 | Vino Primo (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-factory-new) Hidden $3.58 7.16 coins $6.15 12.3 coins 1.72x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $3.58 7.16 coins $0.64 1.27 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $3.58 7.16 coins $84.04 168 coins 23.47x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) [kvaki](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/kvaki) $3.58 7.16 coins $0.64 1.27 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $3.58 7.16 coins $0.64 1.27 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) Hidden $3.58 7.16 coins $0.64 1.27 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 19:49 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.58 | 89.94% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 1.2% other 0.0% Covert 0.0% Immortal 0.5% mil spec 3.0% violet 3.0% classified 3.0% #d32ee6 3.0% consumer 3.0% #777777 3.0% restricted 80.3% best hit $375 (104.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.94 on average: an expected loss of $10.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt