--- title: "??? case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "??? ($47.09) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 8 items with odds, observed 125.56% over 3,082 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/q rendered: 2026-11-11T21:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [???](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/q) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken)??? A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/q?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/q?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/q) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/q?window=all) Price · $47.09 · 94.18 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $42.38 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 125.56% · 3,082 openings, odds method Variance · 121.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 333 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 261 openings · below min 7 days · 108.67% ±47.96 2,022 openings 30 days · 125.56% ±38.85 3,082 openings since tracking started · 125.56% ±38.85 3,082 openings -0.5% 115.5% 231.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/q?window=24h) | 261 | 97.15% ±133.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/q?window=7d) | 2,022 | 108.67% ±48.0 | +0.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/q) | 3,082 | 125.56% ±38.8 | +1.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/q?window=all) | 3,082 | 125.56% ±38.8 | +1.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,082 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,754 15,508 coins | 18.3% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.62× | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,752 15,504 coins | 18.3% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.30× | | [Sticker \| LUCAS1 (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas1-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,441 14,883 coins | 17.6% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.62× | | [Sticker \| s1mple (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 1,000 | $6,930 13,859 coins | 16.4% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.30× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $6,234 12,468 coins | 14.7% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.97× | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,252 2,504 coins | 14.8% | 23 | 15.4 | 1.49× | | [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) | 49.0% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 1,483 | 1510.2 | 0.98× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 50.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,555 | 1541.0 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 20:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $47.09 94.18 coins $7,754 15,508 coins 164.7x 2026-11-08 20:02 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $47.09 94.18 coins $7,754 15,508 coins 164.7x 2026-11-08 15:29 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $47.09 94.18 coins $7,754 15,508 coins 164.7x 2026-11-05 07:45 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $47.09 94.18 coins $7,754 15,508 coins 164.7x 2026-11-04 17:34 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $47.09 94.18 coins $7,754 15,508 coins 164.7x 2026-11-03 18:52 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $47.09 94.18 coins $7,752 15,504 coins 164.6x 2026-11-10 10:20 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $47.09 94.18 coins $7,752 15,504 coins 164.6x 2026-11-05 15:22 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $47.09 94.18 coins $7,752 15,504 coins 164.6x 2026-11-05 07:44 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $47.09 94.18 coins $7,752 15,504 coins 164.6x 2026-11-03 12:21 UTC [Sticker | LUCAS1 (Gold) | Boston 2018 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas1-gold-boston-2018) Hidden $47.09 94.18 coins $7,441 14,883 coins 158.0x 2026-11-10 18:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=q) [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $47.09 94.18 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:14 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) Hidden $47.09 94.18 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:14 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) Hidden $47.09 94.18 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:14 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $47.09 94.18 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:14 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $47.09 94.18 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:14 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $47.09 94.18 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:14 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) Hidden $47.09 94.18 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:14 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) Hidden $47.09 94.18 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:14 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) Hidden $47.09 94.18 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:04 UTC [SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) Hidden $47.09 94.18 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $47.09 | 90.00% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.1% covert 0.6% other 0.1% Extraordinary 0.1% #ffd700 0.1% #4b69ff 99.0% best hit $7,754 (164.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt