--- title: "Quantum case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Quantum ($2.81) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 10 items with odds, observed 89.58% over 912 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/quantum rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Quantum](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/quantum) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Quantum A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/quantum?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/quantum?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/quantum) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/quantum?window=all) Price · $2.81 · 5.62 coins Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $2.53 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.58% · 912 openings, odds method Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 25.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 44 openings · below min 7 days · 86.82% ±14.56 454 openings 30 days · 89.58% ±10.28 912 openings since tracking started · 89.58% ±10.28 912 openings 55.0% 102.5% 150.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/quantum?window=24h) | 44 | 102.52% ±46.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/quantum?window=7d) | 454 | 86.82% ±14.6 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/quantum) | 912 | 89.58% ±10.3 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/quantum?window=all) | 912 | 89.58% ±10.3 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 912 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $19.94 39.87 coins | 7.9% | 12 | 9.1 | 1.32× | | [Sawed-Off \| First Class (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-first-class-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $19.78 39.56 coins | 7.8% | 9 | 9.1 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $19.47 38.94 coins | 7.7% | 8 | 9.1 | 0.88× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $19.18 38.36 coins | 7.6% | 10 | 9.1 | 1.10× | | [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $18.06 36.11 coins | 7.1% | 9 | 9.1 | 0.99× | | [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $17.64 35.28 coins | 7.0% | 9 | 9.1 | 0.99× | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 19.0% | $4.53 9.06 coins | 34.0% | 157 | 173.3 | 0.91× | | [XM1014 \| Entombed (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-field-tested) | 19.0% | $1.56 3.12 coins | 11.7% | 186 | 173.3 | 1.07× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 19.0% | $0.56 1.11 coins | 4.2% | 159 | 173.3 | 0.92× | | [P90 \| Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-off-world-factory-new) | 37.0% | $0.34 0.68 coins | 5.0% | 353 | 337.4 | 1.05× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=quantum) [XM1014 | Entombed (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-field-tested) Hidden $2.81 5.62 coins $1.56 3.12 coins 0.56x 2026-11-11 02:58 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $2.81 5.62 coins $4.53 9.06 coins 1.61x 2026-11-11 02:58 UTC [P90 | Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-off-world-factory-new) Hidden $2.81 5.62 coins $0.34 0.68 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 02:58 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $2.81 5.62 coins $0.56 1.11 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 02:58 UTC [P90 | Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-off-world-factory-new) Hidden $2.81 5.62 coins $0.34 0.68 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 02:58 UTC [P90 | Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-off-world-factory-new) [RichWazii](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/RichWazii) $2.81 5.62 coins $0.34 0.68 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 02:58 UTC [P90 | Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-off-world-factory-new) Hidden $2.81 5.62 coins $0.34 0.68 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 02:56 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $2.81 5.62 coins $4.53 9.06 coins 1.61x 2026-11-11 02:56 UTC [P90 | Off World (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-off-world-factory-new) Hidden $2.81 5.62 coins $0.34 0.68 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 02:56 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $2.81 5.62 coins $4.53 9.06 coins 1.61x 2026-11-11 02:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.81 | 90.00% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 20.0% Mil Spec Grade 1.0% Ancient 1.0% mil spec 38.0% industrial 1.0% Consumer Grade 1.0% pink 19.0% Rare 19.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt