--- title: "Queen Gambit case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Queen Gambit ($2.59) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 8 items with odds, observed 96.14% over 5,346 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/queen-gambit rendered: 2026-11-11T15:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Queen Gambit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/queen-gambit) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Queen Gambit A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/queen-gambit?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/queen-gambit?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/queen-gambit) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/queen-gambit?window=all) Price · $2.59 · 5.18 coins Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $2.33 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.14% · 5,346 openings, odds method Variance · 22.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 326 openings · below min 7 days · 94.36% ±14.07 4,273 openings 30 days · 96.14% ±12.58 5,346 openings since tracking started · 96.14% ±12.58 5,346 openings 69.0% 120.5% 172.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/queen-gambit?window=24h) | 326 | 120.52% ±50.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/queen-gambit?window=7d) | 4,273 | 94.36% ±14.1 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/queen-gambit) | 5,346 | 96.14% ±12.6 | +1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/queen-gambit?window=all) | 5,346 | 96.14% ±12.6 | +1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,346 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $119 238 coins | 51.0% | 59 | 53.5 | 1.10× | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $31.27 62.54 coins | 13.4% | 56 | 53.5 | 1.05× | | [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $4.53 9.06 coins | 5.8% | 173 | 160.4 | 1.08× | | [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) | 15.0% | $2.54 5.08 coins | 16.3% | 820 | 801.9 | 1.02× | | [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-field-tested) | 10.0% | $1.07 2.14 coins | 4.6% | 542 | 534.6 | 1.01× | | [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 18.0% | $0.71 1.43 coins | 5.5% | 988 | 962.3 | 1.03× | | [P90 \| Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) | 24.0% | $0.21 0.42 coins | 2.2% | 1,223 | 1283.0 | 0.95× | | [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-field-tested) | 28.0% | $0.09 0.18 coins | 1.1% | 1,485 | 1496.9 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=queen-gambit) [Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-field-tested) Hidden $2.59 5.18 coins $0.09 0.18 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:41 UTC [Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-field-tested) Hidden $2.59 5.18 coins $0.09 0.18 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:41 UTC [UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-factory-new) Hidden $2.59 5.18 coins $2.54 5.08 coins 0.98x 2026-11-11 15:41 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) [valentinslisaks](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/valentinslisaks) $2.59 5.18 coins $4.53 9.06 coins 1.75x 2026-11-11 15:41 UTC [Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-field-tested) Hidden $2.59 5.18 coins $1.07 2.14 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 15:40 UTC [Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-field-tested) Hidden $2.59 5.18 coins $0.09 0.18 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:40 UTC [Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-field-tested) Hidden $2.59 5.18 coins $1.07 2.14 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 15:40 UTC [P90 | Neoqueen (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-field-tested) [valentinslisaks](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/valentinslisaks) $2.59 5.18 coins $0.21 0.42 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 15:40 UTC [Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $2.59 5.18 coins $4.53 9.06 coins 1.75x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-field-tested) Hidden $2.59 5.18 coins $0.09 0.18 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.59 | 89.97% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 5.0% #4b69ff 15.0% classified 10.0% pink 18.0% violet 24.0% mil spec 28.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt