--- title: "Radial case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Radial ($3.63) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.89% from 12 items with odds, observed 90.38% over 919 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/radial rendered: 2026-11-11T13:38Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Radial](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/radial) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Radial A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/radial?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/radial?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/radial) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/radial?window=all) Price · $3.63 · 7.25 coins Advertised RTP · 89.89% · EV $3.26 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.38% · 919 openings, odds method Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 33.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 58.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 24 openings · below min 7 days · 91.12% ±3.70 635 openings 30 days · 90.38% ±3.08 919 openings since tracking started · 90.38% ±3.08 919 openings 68.0% 87.8% 107.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/radial?window=24h) | 24 | 87.68% ±19.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/radial?window=7d) | 635 | 91.12% ±3.70 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/radial) | 919 | 90.38% ±3.08 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/radial?window=all) | 919 | 90.38% ±3.08 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 919 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $6.00 12 coins | 15.3% | 77 | 76.6 | 1.01× | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $5.51 11.01 coins | 14.1% | 81 | 76.6 | 1.06× | | [G3SG1 \| Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $5.02 10.04 coins | 12.8% | 77 | 76.6 | 1.01× | | [SCAR-20 \| Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $4.53 9.05 coins | 11.6% | 73 | 76.6 | 0.95× | | [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $4.00 8 coins | 10.2% | 65 | 76.6 | 0.85× | | [P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $3.50 7 coins | 8.9% | 82 | 76.6 | 1.07× | | [Sawed-Off \| Sage Spray (Factory New) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $3.01 6.01 coins | 7.7% | 83 | 76.6 | 1.08× | | [MAC-10 \| Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $2.53 5.06 coins | 6.5% | 84 | 76.6 | 1.10× | | [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $2.01 4.01 coins | 5.1% | 72 | 76.6 | 0.94× | | [FAMAS \| Contrast Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-contrast-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.52 3.03 coins | 3.9% | 90 | 76.6 | 1.18× | | [G3SG1 \| Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $1.01 2.02 coins | 2.6% | 57 | 76.6 | 0.74× | | [UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.50 1 coins | 1.3% | 78 | 76.9 | 1.01× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=radial) [MAC-10 | Aloha (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-factory-new) Hidden $3.63 7.25 coins $2.53 5.06 coins 0.70x 2026-11-11 06:59 UTC [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $3.63 7.25 coins $1.01 2.02 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 06:59 UTC [Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-field-tested) Hidden $3.63 7.25 coins $2.01 4.01 coins 0.55x 2026-11-11 06:59 UTC [P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $3.63 7.25 coins $5.51 11.01 coins 1.52x 2026-11-11 06:59 UTC [Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-field-tested) Hidden $3.63 7.25 coins $2.01 4.01 coins 0.55x 2026-11-11 06:59 UTC [P90 | Glacier Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $3.63 7.25 coins $3.50 7 coins 0.97x 2026-11-11 06:59 UTC [UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-full-stop-field-tested) Hidden $3.63 7.25 coins $0.50 1 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 06:59 UTC [Dual Berettas | Moon in Libra (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-field-tested) [StormNomad3446](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/StormNomad3446) $3.63 7.25 coins $2.01 4.01 coins 0.55x 2026-11-11 06:59 UTC [SCAR-20 | Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-storm-factory-new) Hidden $3.63 7.25 coins $4.53 9.05 coins 1.25x 2026-11-11 06:57 UTC [SCAR-20 | Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-storm-factory-new) Hidden $3.63 7.25 coins $4.53 9.05 coins 1.25x 2026-11-11 06:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.63 | 89.89% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 8.3% covert 8.3% mil spec 25.0% Consumer Grade 8.3% Rare 8.3% #4b69ff 8.3% other 8.3% #777777 16.7% blue 8.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.89 on average: an expected loss of $10.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt