--- title: "Rain Farm case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Rain Farm ($0.13) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.50% from 8 items with odds, observed 89.48% over 7,289 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rain-farm rendered: 2026-11-11T13:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Rain Farm](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rain-farm) # [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Rain Farm A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rain-farm?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rain-farm?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rain-farm) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rain-farm?window=all) Price · $0.13 · 0.25 coins Advertised RTP · 88.50% · EV $0.11 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.48% · 7,289 openings, odds method Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.17% ±7.18 1,337 openings 7 days · 88.84% ±3.21 6,674 openings 30 days · 89.48% ±3.07 7,289 openings since tracking started · 89.48% ±3.07 7,289 openings 78.5% 86.3% 94.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rain-farm?window=24h) | 1,337 | 86.17% ±7.18 | −0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rain-farm?window=7d) | 6,674 | 88.84% ±3.21 | +0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rain-farm) | 7,289 | 89.48% ±3.07 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rain-farm?window=all) | 7,289 | 89.48% ±3.07 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,297 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 12.5% | $0.50 1 coins | 56.5% | 933 | 912.1 | 1.02× | | [UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-oscillator-factory-new) | 12.5% | $0.26 0.52 coins | 29.4% | 915 | 912.1 | 1.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Palm (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $0.06 0.11 coins | 6.2% | 885 | 912.1 | 0.97× | | [AUG \| Sweeper (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-minimal-wear) | 12.5% | $0.03 0.05 coins | 2.8% | 860 | 912.1 | 0.94× | | [Nova \| Mandrel (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-field-tested) | 12.5% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 2.3% | 929 | 912.1 | 1.02× | | [UMP-45 \| Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-field-tested) | 12.5% | $0.01 0.03 coins | 1.7% | 912 | 912.1 | 1.00× | | [P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) | 12.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.6% | 961 | 912.1 | 1.05× | | [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) | 12.5% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.6% | 902 | 912.1 | 0.99× | Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=rain-farm) [FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-field-tested) Hidden $0.13 0.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-field-tested) Hidden $0.13 0.25 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.13 0.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-oscillator-factory-new) Hidden $0.13 0.25 coins $0.26 0.52 coins 2.08x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [Nova | Mandrel (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-field-tested) Hidden $0.13 0.25 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [MAC-10 | Palm (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.13 0.25 coins $0.06 0.11 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) Hidden $0.13 0.25 coins $0.50 1 coins 4.00x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [AUG | Sweeper (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-minimal-wear) [Teeboy77](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/Teeboy77) $0.13 0.25 coins $0.03 0.05 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:41 UTC [P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-field-tested) Hidden $0.13 0.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC [UMP-45 | Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-mudder-field-tested) Hidden $0.13 0.25 coins $0.01 0.03 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.13 | 88.50% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #4b69ff 37.5% blue 12.5% #87c7ff 12.5% Common 25.0% consumer 12.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.50 on average: an expected loss of $11.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt