---
title: "Rainbow case on Chicken.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Rainbow ($9.09) on Chicken.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.95% from 16 items with odds, observed 82.90% over 1,938 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rainbow
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) / [Rainbow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rainbow)

# [Chicken.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/chicken) · Rainbow

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rainbow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rainbow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rainbow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rainbow?window=all)

Price · $9.09 · 18.18 coins

Advertised RTP · 89.95% · EV $8.18 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.90% · 1,938 openings, odds method

Variance · 15.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.01% ±52.30 218 openings

7 days · 83.81% ±20.10 1,476 openings

30 days · 82.90% ±17.54 1,938 openings

since tracking started · 82.90% ±17.54 1,938 openings

39.0% 92.0% 145.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rainbow?window=24h) | 218 | 92.01% ±52.3 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rainbow?window=7d) | 1,476 | 83.81% ±20.1 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rainbow) | 1,938 | 82.90% ±17.5 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/chicken/rainbow?window=all) | 1,938 | 82.90% ±17.5 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,944 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,383 2,766 coins | 1.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,301 2,602 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,429 | $493 986 coins | 4.2% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $419 837 coins | 5.1% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.51× |
| [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 625 | $367 733 coins | 7.2% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.64× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $247 493 coins | 6.0% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.03× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $153 307 coins | 11.2% | 17 | 11.7 | 1.46× |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $65.87 132 coins | 7.3% | 13 | 17.5 | 0.74× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $61.04 122 coins | 7.5% | 16 | 19.4 | 0.82× |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $42.09 84.17 coins | 10.3% | 46 | 38.9 | 1.18× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $35.33 70.65 coins | 10.8% | 38 | 48.6 | 0.78× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $14.33 28.65 coins | 10.5% | 118 | 116.6 | 1.01× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $8.91 17.81 coins | 6.5% | 110 | 116.6 | 0.94× |
| [MP7 \| Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $8.21 16.41 coins | 6.0% | 122 | 116.6 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $4.53 9.06 coins | 3.9% | 130 | 136.1 | 0.96× |
| [G3SG1 \| Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) | 67.5% | $0.02 0.04 coins | 0.2% | 1,326 | 1311.2 | 1.01× |

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `chicken:cases/get-cases`, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [EliteLynx4233](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/EliteLynx4233) $9.09 18.18 coins $493 986 coins 54.26x 2026-11-10 19:34 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=chicken&case=rainbow)

[G3SG1 | Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) Hidden $9.09 18.18 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) [GrimViper3313](https://gambatracker.com/players/chicken/GrimViper3313) $9.09 18.18 coins $4.53 9.06 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $9.09 18.18 coins $4.53 9.06 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $9.09 18.18 coins $4.53 9.06 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[G3SG1 | Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) Hidden $9.09 18.18 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) Hidden $9.09 18.18 coins $4.53 9.06 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[G3SG1 | Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) Hidden $9.09 18.18 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[G3SG1 | Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) Hidden $9.09 18.18 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:13 UTC

[AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.09 18.18 coins $65.87 132 coins 7.25x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[G3SG1 | Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-hunter-field-tested) Hidden $9.09 18.18 coins $0.02 0.04 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.09 | 89.95% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.0% covert 16.4% extraordinary 0.1% classified 1.1% mil spec 1.0% restricted 8.0% industrial 6.0% blue 67.5% best hit $493 (54.26x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.95 on average: an expected loss of $10.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt